\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 159 Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) )
Focus on cableways, focus on scenic spots and transform to ecological theme parks Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) ‘s product modules include scenic spot transportation connection system based on cableway, scenic spot comprehensive operation system, theme park and non-standard accommodation product system, including a number of high-quality projects such as Shaanxi Huashan cableway, Zhejiang Qiandao Lake cableway, Guizhou Fanjing Mountain scenic spot, Hainan Monkey Island Scenic Spot and so on.
Under the epidemic situation, we should strictly abide by the profession, make diversified efforts, counter the trend, and expand the operation of the whole industrial chain. The company has been deeply engaged in the cableway industry for many years and expanded the operation of the whole industrial chain. Since 1995, the company has invested and managed more than 20 cableways, represented by Shaanxi Huashan Wuhan Sante Cableway Group Co.Ltd(002159) and Guizhou Fanjing Mountain cableways. The scenic spot where the cableway is located has strong IP appeal and great space elasticity for recovery after the epidemic; The company has mastered the tourism resources of the scenic spot and made a cross regional layout to resist the epidemic risk. After secondary development, Hainan Monkey Island project has not only formed a synergistic effect with romantic Tianyuan scenic spot, but also created an out of circle tourism IP with strong growth capacity. The revenue of Monkey Island Project has recovered to 71% of the 19-year level in 21 years.
Coordinate the existing project resources to create modular, replicable and lightweight experience products. The company is involved in a number of experience cultural tourism projects, which can meet the diversified and personalized needs of tourists. Taking Wuhan East Lake Ocean Park as the first attempt to transform to an ecological theme park and create replicable cultural tourism experience products, in 21 years, East Lake Ocean Park achieved a revenue of 83 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.74%, and a net profit of 11 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 406.83%; It is planned to build a leisure and vacation camp in Muxin valley of Qiandao Lake, based on the existing cableway resources, superimpose various types of Paradise experience projects, promote the improvement of benchmark project system, and create IP matrix and strong replication product module.
With light equipment and “downsizing and refocusing”, the revenue and gross profit margin increased both in 2021, and the provision of assets eliminated risks, laying the foundation for steady and sustainable operation. In the past 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 435 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.21%; The gross profit margin of main business was 44.30%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.59%. As the company combed the asset structure, made a large amount of provision for asset impairment of non-performing assets, and the non recurring profit and loss of this year decreased significantly compared with last year, the net profit in 2021 was -174 million yuan.
Investment suggestion: Based on the prediction of passenger flow (82.5% of the level in 2021 in 2022, 80% of the level in 2019 in 2023 and 95% of the level in 2019 in 2024), it is expected that the company’s subsequent profitability will gradually increase. It is expected to achieve revenue of 359 / 553 / 659 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a corresponding year-on-year increase of – 17.4% / 54.0% / 19.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -0.06/0.64/122 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 96.4% / 1135.4% / 90.6%. It is estimated that EPS will reach 0.36/0.69 yuan from 2023 to 2024, corresponding to pe24 3 / 12.8x, with a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: macro systemic risks such as large-scale repeated epidemic, price reduction risk, insufficient consumption demand of culture and tourism, the resumption of business of existing projects is less than expected, and the construction and opening process of new projects is less than expected.
