\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 260 Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
The company released its annual report for 21 years. The company achieved a revenue of 21.343 billion yuan, yoy + 137.99%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 8.211 billion yuan, yoy + 484.74%, slightly lower than the previous forecast. In a single quarter, the company's Q4 achieved a revenue of 7.228 billion yuan, yoy + 172.94%, QoQ + 12.71%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.208 billion yuan, yoy + 368.03%, QoQ + 22.00%. The company also announced the profit distribution plan for 21 years, with a cash dividend of 1.51 yuan per share and a dividend rate of 1.87%.
The company released the first quarterly report of 22 years. In Q1 of 22 years, the revenue was 6.390 billion yuan, yoy + 92.57%, qoq-11.60%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.051 billion yuan, yoy + 124.74%, qoq-36.08%. The performance was in line with expectations.
The company is the largest industrial silicon manufacturer in the world. At present, it has 730000 tons of industrial silicon and 930000 tons of silicone production capacity, with significant scale advantages. Under the background of "carbon neutralization", the demand for industrial silicon is growing rapidly, and the company's performance is guaranteed; It is expected that after the completion of the "buy in" project, more than one company is under construction and is expected to "expand production" in advance.
The volume and price of main products increased simultaneously, and the company's performance increased rapidly in 21 years: the company's performance increased significantly in 2021, mainly benefiting from the simultaneous rise of volume and price of main products. In the second half of the year, the rise of energy prices and the power restriction policy affected the industrial silicon production capacity. Coupled with the continuous increase of downstream demand, the industrial silicon price fluctuated greatly. The average ex factory prices of the company's main products industrial silicon / 110 raw rubber / 107 rubber / compound rubber / cyclosiloxane / fumed silica reached 1.67/2.80/2.74/2.50/2.7119600 yuan / ton, yoy respectively + 59.11% / + 73.33% / 72.36% / + 56.05% / + 71.54% / + 52.90%. In addition, the 200000 ton siloxane project of Western Hesheng was officially put into operation, the sales volume of silicone products increased, and the expansion of production coincided with the time. Affected by downstream demand, the sales volume of the company's products also increased significantly year-on-year. The sales volume of industrial silicon / 110 raw rubber / 107 rubber / compound rubber / cyclosiloxane / fumed silica were 53.35/15.45/13.96/4.72/6.6180000 tons respectively, yoy respectively + 45.57% / + 21.34% / + 56.38% / + 14.84% / + 138.93% / + 16.22%. The price of main products rose sharply and thickened the company's profit. In 21 years, the company's gross profit margin increased by 24.70pct to 52.87%. At the same time, with the growth of the company's revenue, various expense rates were diluted, and the three expense rates decreased by 3.04 PCT year-on-year to 2.43%.
The price of silicon-based materials is still high, and the performance fell month on month: in Q1 of 22 years, the company's performance continued to increase year on year, but fell month on month. Mainly since Q4 of the 21st year, the downstream cannot bear the high price of industrial silicon, forcing the correction of industrial silicon price. The prices of Q1 company's main products were adjusted back in the year of 22. The average ex factory prices of industrial silicon / 110 raw rubber / 107 rubber / compound rubber / cyclosiloxane / fumed silica were 1.85/2.80/2.70/2.72/2.8626200 yuan / ton respectively, yoy were + 54.54% / + 41.59% / 39.47% / + 42.87% / + 39.94% / + 76.96%, QoQ were - 44.14% / - 10.70% / - 13.57% - 8.69% / - 13.58% / + 5.59% respectively, which was still at a high position in the same period. The gross profit margin of the company increased by 7.10 PCT year-on-year to 47.50%. In terms of expenses, the three expense rates decreased by 1.34 PCT year-on-year to 2.23%
Abundant new projects and perfect industrial chain layout: the company is the world's largest industrial silicon production enterprise. At present, it has industrial silicon and silicone monomer production capacity of 730000 T / A and 930000 T / A, with significant scale advantages. At the same time, the company continues to expand production capacity. At present, the phase II annual output of 200000 tons of siloxane and downstream deep processing project of Xinjiang Hesheng coal power silicon integration project is expected to be completed in Q1 of 22 years, and the phase II annual output of 400000 tons of industrial silicon project of Eastern Hesheng coal power silicon integration project is expected to be completed in Q2 of 22 years, Yunnan Hesheng 800000 T / a industrial silicon production and supporting Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) t briquette processing and production project and Xinjiang silicon industry coal electricity silicon integration project phase III annual output of 200000 t siloxane and downstream deep processing project are expected to be completed in Q4 of 22 years. Subsequently, the company added 1.2 million tons of industrial silicon and 400000 tons of silicone. In addition, the company also plans to build projects such as polysilicon and photovoltaic glass to further broaden the industrial chain and consolidate its leading position.
Profit forecast: considering the impact of the epidemic, the revised profit forecast is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.3/10.6 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023, yoy + 13% + 15%, equivalent to EPS of 8.61/9.91 yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to the A-share price is 9 / 8 times. Considering the broad prospects for the subsequent growth of the company. Give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1. The price of the company's products is lower than expected; 2. The release of new production capacity is less than expected;
