\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 705 Avic Industry-Finance Holdings Co.Ltd(600705) )
Event: the company disclosed that in the first quarter of the 2022 annual report, the total operating revenue was 4.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company was 114544 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 98.28%.
The sharp decline in the company's Q1 net profit was mainly affected by the obvious adjustment of the capital market, the obvious decline in the fair value of equity assets held by the company, such as Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) and the decline in Securities and other business income. From the first quarterly report, investment income + profit and loss from changes in fair value decreased by 270 million compared with the same period last year, down 61% year-on-year, and asset impairment increased by 190 million compared with the same period last year. From the first quarterly report, the company's fee and commission income decreased by 298 million, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, which is expected to be mainly affected by the decline of its AVIC securities brokerage, asset management and other businesses.
Deeply cultivate the aviation industry chain, and the prospect of production and investment is promising. The company closely focuses on the aviation industry chain, promotes the improvement of industrial financial services, relies on the advantages of the group's complete industrial chain and financial licenses, focuses on the layout of aviation industry-related investment through direct investment and the establishment of industrial funds, and has implemented investment projects with a scale of more than 6 billion yuan during the 13th Five Year Plan period. With the steady implementation of the comprehensive registration system in the next step, broaden the exit ways of production and investment, shorten the investment cycle and improve the investment income, the capital market reform will effectively revitalize the primary and secondary levels, and it is expected that the production and investment business will bring significant profit growth to the company.
Strengthen the group's synergy and nuggets supply chain finance. Make full use of the advantages of financial trust and leasing companies to provide comprehensive services for customers. In addition, the company increased its capital network with its own capital of 155 million yuan last year and strategically laid out the military supply chain financial platform. It is expected to rely on the group's industrial background, huge core enterprises and supplier system, pool the resources of head financial institutions, and solve the financing problems faced by small and medium-sized enterprises through supply chain financial innovation.
Short term fluctuations do not disturb the company's medium and long-term good trend. In the short term, the adjustment of the capital market in the first quarter led to obvious pressure on the business income and equity investment of securities and other financial sectors. However, in the medium and long term, the company actively takes the military industry as the foothold and gives full play to the dual advantages of the group's own finance and industry. Industrial investment, supply chain finance and other businesses are expected to become a new driving force for the steady growth of the company's value.
Investment suggestion: maintain the Buy-A investment rating. We lowered the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.5 billion yuan, 5.2 billion yuan and 5.6 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year + 0.5%, + 16.5% and + 6.9% respectively. The six-month target price is 4.2 yuan, corresponding to a P / E of 8.5x in 2022.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn / trust transformation is less than expected / strategic promotion is less than expected
