\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 314 Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) )
The annual revenue decreased slightly and the net profit decreased significantly. The company achieved a total revenue of 11.18 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 976 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5%. The decrease in revenue was mainly due to the impact of settlement on the revenue of real estate business, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.62%. The large decline in net profit is mainly due to: 1) the increase in expense rate and the decrease in profit margin. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company in 2021 were 21.0% and 8.4% respectively, down 7.45pct and 6.55pct respectively compared with 2020; In 2021, the company's management and sales expense ratio increased by 0.2pct and 0.7pct respectively compared with last year. 2) In 2020, the investment income of similar REITs increased significantly. In 2021, the company's investment income decreased relatively, and its net profit decreased year-on-year. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin of the company rebounded to 26.7%, and the net profit was negatively affected by the season. The management and expense ratio decreased by 1.06pct and 0.31pct respectively compared with the same period last year. The net profit of the company is expected to rebound in the future. In 2022q1, the total revenue was 1.041 billion yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent was - 126 million yuan, down 51.8% year-on-year. The sharp decline in net profit was mainly due to the increase in operating costs and R & D expenses caused by the consolidation of the company's subsidiaries after the acquisition of 32% equity of Shenzhen Chiwan shengbaowang Engineering Co., Ltd.
Warehousing and logistics business: steady growth in operating income and diversified expansion. In 2021, Baowan logistics business realized an operating revenue of 1.472 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, mainly due to the stable operation of the original park and the good operation of the new park, and the steady increase of rental income. The company owns and manages 75 smart logistics parks nationwide. The logistics network is constantly improved and the scale effect is increasing. In 2021, Baowan logistics implemented three projects: Beijing cultural investment, Jiangmen Heshan phase II and Xi'an Qianlong, and added Dongguan management output project. Through the output management project and expanding the management output scale, the company's brand influence will be further improved. 668 mu of land was added through diversified methods. In terms of financing, we successfully issued medium-term notes and sustainable notes, increased capital and shares, and completed the switching of AMC organization and personnel, laying the foundation for the transformation of asset management mode.
Real estate business: maintain steady operation and expand high-quality projects. In 2021, the company's real estate business achieved a full-scale sales amount of 21.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118%, a consolidated sales amount of 12.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a real estate business income of 6.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.62%. The decline in revenue is mainly affected by the settlement cycle. In 2021, the company's new land reserve area was 1113000 square meters, an increase of 92% year-on-year, and the new equity land price was 5.04 billion yuan. In 2021, the company took the initiative to reduce liabilities, the three red lines were in a healthy state, and the comprehensive financing cost was 3.85% - 4.99%.
It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.37/0.41/0.47 yuan / share.
With the increase of the sales scale of the company's real estate business, the settlement scale of the real estate business is expected to increase, the logistics and warehousing project under construction is completed, the operating area is expected to increase, the rental income is expected to maintain growth, the development of manufacturing industry and other businesses is stable, and the "buy" rating of the company is maintained, with the target price of 7.73 yuan.
Risk factors: the tightening or relaxation of real estate regulation and control policies is less than expected, the decline of sales in the real estate industry is more than expected, and the expansion of the company's real estate development business and logistics real estate business is less than expected
