Event:
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 29. On the platform economy, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to promote the healthy development of the platform economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy.
On April 29, Bloomberg reported that China and the United States are reportedly discussing matters such as on-site inspection of audit drafts to avoid delisting of China concept shares. According to people familiar with the matter, the consultation includes details such as whether isolation arrangements are needed for the entry of the United States, and the on-site inspection will take the first step towards restarting the listing of Chinese enterprises in the United States in the future.
Comments:
From “strict management” to “care”, the policy of platform economic supervision has completely shifted, and more industry support measures will be introduced soon. Compared with the spirit of previous regulatory documents, this Politburo meeting did not continue the previous references of “antitrust, preventing disorderly expansion of capital” and “setting traffic lights for capital”, but emphasized “completing special rectification of platform economy” and “implementing normalized supervision”, which means that the supervision of Internet companies has officially entered a new stage of completing rectification and normalization of supervision from the stage of establishing cases and event supervision, We expect that the investigation of relevant cases of large Internet companies will enter the final stage, and the regulatory risk is expected to be greatly reduced in the future. At the same time, the meeting proposed “promoting the healthy development of the platform economy” and “introducing specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy”, which means that the important role of the platform economy in ensuring employment, ensuring people’s livelihood and promoting consumption has been fully recognized. In the future, the policy attitude towards the Internet industry will move from “strict management” to “care”, and more measures conducive to the healthy development of the industry will be introduced soon. We believe that this is a complete shift in the industry regulation policy. In the future, the regulation of the Internet industry will enter a new stage of “support first, supplemented by regulation”.
The on-site inspection of the audit draft has been promoted, and the delisting of zhonggai shares is in sight. The Bloomberg report means that the settlement of the China concept stock issue has entered the stage of negotiating specific details. The United States is likely to accept China’s cross-border regulatory cooperation mechanism and enter China to complete the inspection of the audit drafts of relevant companies, so as to take care of China’s concerns about data security. The actual actions taken by China and the United States mean that the delisting problem of China concept shares is expected to be solved in the near future. We can observe the future actions of the United States and see whether we can complete the manuscript audit of China concept shares listed companies.
The end of industry policy has appeared, and the market is expected to rebound. Our report “zhonggai Internet: the more depressed, the more patient” on March 16 pointed out that the core contradictions affecting the performance of zhonggai shares are China’s industry regulatory measures and the delisting of zhonggai shares. Today’s events show that these two contradictions have changed or will change substantially, and the internal and external pressure of the market since July 2021 is expected to be fundamentally relieved. We believe that the “policy bottom” of zhonggai Internet industry has been confirmed. In the future, the sector will usher in a sustained rebound, the valuation is expected to be repaired to a reasonable level, and the allocation attitude of Chinese and foreign investors towards this sector will become more positive; The long-term investment logic will still return to the fundamental performance of the industry and the company.
Investment suggestion: we suggest investors to grasp the significant opportunity of bottom reversal and pay attention to: Internet: 1. Mesozoic consumer Internet companies [meituan-w, jd-w] with good performance growth and strong long-term competitiveness; 2. Short video platform [Kwai-w] with clear loss reduction expectation, superior business model and continuously suppressed valuation; 3. The performance and valuation are still at the bottom, waiting patiently for the industry leading companies on the right [Tencent, Alibaba WS]; 4. Stable performance growth and profit margin, low PE quality company [Netease SW, pinduoduo]; 5. Comply with the policy tone and layout [Baidu group SW] in the field of new technology.
In terms of media: 1. The normalization of game version number and the core catalysis of game going to sea. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation anchor [Tencent, Netease SW], the flexibility of version number and the leading company going to sea [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , heart company] and β Flexibility [ Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) , Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) , Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) , BiliBili SW, China Mobile Games, Baiao family interaction], etc; 2. The recovery of 22h2 affected digestion [ Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) , Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) , Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) ]; 3. There’s a chance to see the opportunity of the theme of the universe’s cosmic universe, and the opportunity to see the opportunity of the theme of the universe ”s cosmic theme, and the opportunity to see the VraR industry chain, NFT, digital virtual human, artificial intelligence, and so on [ 605605 Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) [ Fuchun Technology Co.Ltd(300299) ], etc; 4. The medium and long-term video platform warms up [ Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , BiliBili – SW].
New consumption: 1. Post economic cycle and consumption resonance [ Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) ]; 2. Influenced by the new year of sports events and policy support, sports pay attention to [Anta sports, Li Ning, Tebu international, 361du, keep, Shuhua Sports Co.Ltd(605299) , China Sports Industry Group Co.Ltd(600158) , Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) ]; 3. Recovery after the outbreak of tide play leader and IP going to sea [bubble Mart].
Risk factors: the international situation continues to be volatile; Soaring commodity prices trigger inflation; The process of interest rate increase and table contraction of the Federal Reserve has started; China’s economy and consumption remain depressed; The covid-19 epidemic in China and Hong Kong worsened; The delisting of China concept shares has been delayed; The relevant regulatory policies of Internet platforms continue to be overweight; The anti addiction measures of the game are upgraded, and the game version number is stopped; Increased market volatility, etc.
