The price of thermal coal decreased slightly. As of April 29, the pithead price of Shaanxi Yulin power lump coal (q6000) was 1025.0 yuan / ton, down 25.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The pit mouth price of sticky coal (including tax) (q5500) in the southern suburb of Datong was 905.0 yuan / ton, down 15.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; Inner Mongolia Dongsheng large clean coal truck sector price (q5500) 831.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. The suppression of the epidemic has led to insufficient industrial power consumption, low load of thermal power plants, and the price of power coal in the producing area continues to be under pressure.
Port transportation has improved. This week, there were 6924 trains arriving at Qinhuangdao Port Railway, with a decrease of 13.56% from the previous week; Qinhuangdao Port handled 466000 tons, down 14.18% from the previous week. As of April 29, the inventory of the four major ports around the Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao port, Huanghua port, Caofeidian port and east port of Jingtang Port) was 11.3 million tons (an increase of 530000 tons), the number of anchorage ships was 132.0 (an increase of 13.00), the cargo ship ratio (inventory to ship ratio) was 8.6, and the weekly ratio decreased by 0.49. With the continuous maintenance of Daqin line, it is expected that the port inventory will enter the downstream channel in the future.
The weather warmed up, the resumption of work and production began, and the daily consumption in coastal provinces increased. As of April 28, the coal inventory of the eight coastal provinces was 30.24 million tons, with a weekly increase of 919000 tons (3.13%), the daily consumption was 1.624 million tons, a weekly increase of 50000 tons / day (3.18%), and the available days were 18.6 days, which was flat. As of April 29, the market price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (q5500) produced in Shanxi was 1185.0 yuan / ton, up 22.0 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. International coal price: as of April 27, Newcastle Newcastle’s FOB spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal was US $205.2/ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The spot price of ara6000 kcal thermal coal was US $303.4/t, with a decrease of US $46.65/t on a weekly basis; Richard RB’s FOB spot price of thermal coal was 231.45 US dollars / ton, down 44 US dollars / ton on a weekly basis. As of April 29, the active contract of thermal coal futures fell by 3.8 yuan / ton to 822.0 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week, and the futures discount was 363.0 yuan / ton.
Coke: the transportation and pressing are improved, and the shipment is strengthened. As of April 29, 2022, Fenwei CCI Luliang quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3760 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis, up 11.9% on a monthly basis and 92.8% on a year-on-year basis. Port index: CCI Rizhao quasi primary metallurgical coke reported 3900 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 120 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of 9.24% and a year-on-year increase of 74.8%. With the initial results of epidemic control policies in various regions, road transportation continued to improve, the shipment of coke enterprises in origin increased, the operating rate increased, and the tight pattern of coke supply and demand was alleviated.
Coking coal: Coal Mine inventory increased, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream became stronger. As of April 29, CCI Shanxi low sulfur index was 3448 yuan / ton, up 8 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 233 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; CCI Shanxi high sulfur index was 3063 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis and up 123 yuan / ton on a monthly basis; Lingshi fat coal index was 2950 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis and up 200 yuan / ton on a monthly basis. At present, the price is temporarily stable. As the current price has been at a high level, some coal washing plants and intermediate traders have increased their willingness to ship in consideration of market risks.
We believe that at present, we are in the early stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the fundamentals, policies and companies resonate. At this stage, the allocation of coal sector is at the right time. At the end of April, listed companies of coal enterprises disclosed their production and operation in the first quarter. Benefiting from the continuous high operation of coal prices, the revenue and profits of coal enterprises have increased significantly compared with the same period last year. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to March, the coal mining and washing industry realized an operating revenue of 944.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%; The total profit of coal mining and washing industry was 235.7 billion yuan, an increase of 189.0%. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is a reasonable stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector. Investment rating: we continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
Risk factors: coal mine safety production accidents in key companies; Downstream energy and power consumption departments continue to limit production on a large scale; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
