Key investment points
In March, the output of new energy vehicles was 466500, with a month on month ratio of + 141% / + 82%, which was in line with market expectations: according to the insurance caliber data of GGII, the output of new energy vehicles in March 2022 was 466500, with a month on month ratio of + 141% / + 82%. Among them, the output of passenger cars was 444500, with a month on month ratio of + 136% / + 81%, and the output of pure electric passenger cars increased to 361700, with a month on month ratio of + 126% / + 92%; The output of passenger cars was 2954, with a month on month ratio of + 44% / + 225%; The output of special vehicles was 18957, with a month on month ratio of + 402% / + 123%. In 2022, the cumulative output of Q1 electric vehicles reached 1044000, a year-on-year increase of 136%, maintaining a high-speed growth; The production of 1.364 million passenger cars increased year-on-year; A total of 6797 passenger cars were produced, a year-on-year decrease of 7%; A total of 33800 special-purpose vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 386%.
In March, the total installed electromechanical capacity of electric vehicles was 21.6gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 152% and a month on month increase of 99%. In 2022, the cumulative installed power of Q1 was 46.87gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 140%. 1) In March, the installed capacity of Sanyuan was 9.4gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 74%, a month on month increase of 90%, and the installed capacity accounted for 44%; In 2022, the accumulated installed power in Q1 was 21.78gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 80%, accounting for 46%. 2) In March, the installed capacity of iron lithium was 12.0gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 288%, a month on month increase of 107%, and the installed capacity accounted for 56%; In 2022, the accumulated installed power in Q1 was 24.96gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 242%, accounting for 53%.
In terms of the average charging capacity of various models, the average charging capacity of pure electric passenger cars and pure electric buses increased month on month in March, and that of pure electric special vehicles decreased month on month. In March, the single vehicle charging capacity of pure electric passenger vehicles was 49.63kwh/vehicle, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year and 6.0% month on month. The average charging capacity of Q1 in 2022 was 48.52kwh/vehicle. In March, the average single vehicle charging capacity of pure electric buses was 224.96kwh/vehicle, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a month on month increase of 5.5%. The average charging capacity of Q1 in 2022 was 202.95kwh/vehicle. In March, the average single vehicle charging capacity of pure electric special vehicles was 65.30kwh/vehicle, down 6.1% year-on-year and 13.6% month on month. The average charging capacity of Q1 in 2022 was 83.38kwh/vehicle.
From the perspective of battery manufacturers, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has a solid leading position, and Byd Company Limited(002594) and AVIC lithium potential rank second and third Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 3 month installed electricity was 11.14gwh (including SAIC, GAC and FAW), up 153.3% year-on-year and 94.8% month on month. The market share of monthly installed electricity was 51.7%, ranking first Byd Company Limited(002594) ranked second in installed capacity, with an installed capacity of 4.36 GWH in March, a year-on-year increase of 381.2%, a month on month increase of 84.2%, and the installed capacity accounted for 20.2%. The third place was AVIC lithium battery, with an installed capacity of 1.65 GWH in March, a year-on-year increase of 182.7%, a month on month increase of 218.9%, and the installed capacity accounted for 7.7%.
From the perspective of models, passenger cars are still the main force of battery consumption. In March, the installed capacity of passenger cars was 19.67gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 152%, a month on month increase of 97%, and the installed capacity accounted for 91%, of which the ternary installed capacity was 9.43gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 85%, a month on month increase of 90%, and the installed capacity accounted for 48%; The installed electromechanical capacity of special vehicles was 1.24gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 333%, a month on month increase of 94%, and the installed capacity accounted for 6%; Passenger cars were 0.64gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 46%, a month on month increase of 246%, and the installed capacity accounted for 3%.
Investment suggestion: core companies generally have a high growth rate of 70-100% this year, and the valuation has dropped to 12-30 times this year and 9-22 times next year, which is at the bottom of history. The performance of 2022q1 is generally bright. Although the growth rate of Q2 has slowed down due to the epidemic, it is still sustainable online. We are optimistic about the reversal of the electric vehicle sector. Be optimistic about the battery link leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , followed by Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to the second line Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ; Followed by the global leading diaphragm ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ), negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ) and undervalued electrolyte ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ); Thirdly, the high nickel ternary cathode ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ), lithium iron manganese phosphate ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); Fourth, focus on the upstream resource lithium ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ), copper foil ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ), etc.
Risk tip: sales volume and profit are lower than expected.
