Jingke energy (688223)
Events
Jingke Energy announced: 1) in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 40.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.59%.
2) in the first quarter, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 288%.
Key investment points
Q1 profitability improved month on month, and overseas integrated production capacity was put into operation
The company’s Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46%, deducting the non attributable net profit of 240 million yuan. The company’s Q4 component shipment was about 9.7gw, the single watt profit reached 4.3 points, and the non single watt profit deducted reached 2.5 points. In 2022q1, the net profit of the company reached 400 million yuan and the deducted non net profit reached 300 million yuan, which was close to the previous performance forecast center. The company’s component shipments in the first quarter reached 8.03gw, with a single watt profit of about 5 points, deducting a non single watt profit of 3.7 points, with a month on month increase of more than 1 point / W, and the profitability improved. We believe that the main reason is that the company’s 7gw capacity in Vietnam in the first quarter was put into operation in early 2022, and the company has a complete vertical integration capacity leading in the industry overseas.
TOPCON’s production capacity has been rapidly promoted, with large-scale mass production and commercial promotion relying on its leading technology
The company began to put TOPCON mass production line into operation in 2019. In 2021, the company made breakthroughs in R & D in the field of n-type TOPCON. The mass production efficiency of the company’s battery reached 24.5%, the maximum mass production efficiency of components reached 22.3%, and the yield was close to perc battery products. The company put into operation a total of 16GW high-efficiency n-type TOPCON battery production line in Hefei, Anhui and Haining, Zhejiang respectively. The n-type TOPCON module benefits from its power generation gain and lower attenuation rate. Compared with the ordinary p-type perc module, the premium is about 0.1 yuan / W. at present, the terminal, especially overseas, has high acceptance of n-type TOPCON module. The company cooperates with Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) to lay out the route of TOPCON laser micro loss equipment and improve the efficiency of the company’s TOPCON production line through one-time direct mixing. It is expected that the efficiency of the company’s TOPCON battery production line will have a clear improvement path in the future, which will further reflect its advantages compared with traditional products.
By the end of 2021, the company’s monocrystalline silicon chip production capacity was about 32.5gw, the battery chip production capacity was about 24gw, and the component production capacity reached 45gw. Up to now, the company’s battery capacity has reached 40gw, the short board of the battery has been supplemented, and the degree of integration has been improved.
We are optimistic that three factors will improve the profitability of the company
1) after Vietnam silicon wafer and batteries in Hefei, Anhui and Haining, Zhejiang were put into operation, the integration degree of the company was improved; 2) The premium brought by the leading advantage of TOPCON battery is expected to reach 35-40gw this year, including 10GW of n-type TOPCON components. It is expected that the proportion of n-type TOPCON will further increase next year; 3) After the company went back to a for listing, the financing channels were expanded and the financial expenses were reduced.
Accelerate the expansion of production capacity and be optimistic about the increase of the company’s market share
In 2021, the company’s overseas business revenue accounted for 75%, established ontology marketing teams in 120 countries and regions around the world, and the distribution business revenue accounted for 33%. With the overseas energy crisis and the continuous rise of PPA electricity price, we are optimistic about the outbreak of overseas photovoltaic demand. The company is expected to increase the market share through its overseas channel advantages and n-type advantageous products. The company announced in March that it plans to build a 30GW single crystal pull rod production line in Xining and invest 24gw photovoltaic high-efficiency modules and 100000 tons of photovoltaic aluminum profiles in Shangrao. In April, the company announced that it plans to use the over raised funds to build a new Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) high-efficiency battery chip phase II project of 8GW, with an annual output of 20GW. The overall capacity of the company has accelerated the expansion. We are optimistic about the improvement of the market share of the company in the future from the perspectives of capacity, products and channels.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.85/4.64/6.21 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 45 / 28 / 20 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips
Photovoltaic demand is less than expected; The promotion of TOPCON’s new products is not as expected; The launch progress of new production capacity is less than expected; The risks brought by the double anti and anti circumvention of the United States; Market systemic risk.
