\u3000\u30003 Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) 00218)
Company overview
In 2022q1, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / deduction of non attributable to the parent company was RMB 484 / 169 / 013 million, with a year-on-year increase of 9.44% / 512.32% / - 52.81%. The increase in net profit mainly came from the recognition of land acquisition and storage income (RMB 155 million). The net profit exceeded the expectation, but the deduction of non attributable net profit was lower than the expectation. Analysis and judgment
The slowdown in revenue was affected by the epidemic. The company's revenue increased by only 9%, mainly due to: (1) the sales volume decreased slightly. The epidemic repeated in March and affected the delivery. It is expected that the impact of the epidemic on logistics will gradually weaken in May. (2) According to our calculation, although the company raised the price by about 28% in 21q4, it basically did not raise the price in 22q1. It is estimated that the customer acceptance of the price increase in 22q1 will be reduced.
The decline in gross profit margin was affected by the rise in the prices of raw materials and energy. The gross profit margin decreased by 5.32pct to 18.36%, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials, the company's failure to raise the price in 22q1 and exchange rate fluctuations, in which the price of chemical raw materials increased by about 20-40% year-on-year and the price of natural gas increased by about 28% year-on-year. The net interest rate after deduction of non-profit decreased by 3.5pct to 2.7%, and the expense rate during the period increased by 1.05pct to 15.16%, mainly due to the increase of R & D expenses by 1.55pct to 7.7%. The shipment of inventory was delayed due to the epidemic. Q1 inventory was 500 million yuan, an increase of 6% over the end of the year.
Investment advice
We judge that the inflection point of the company is in the second half of the year: (1) sofa customers welcome the improvement of delivery in the second half of the year; (2) Overseas major customers are expected to increase their volume in the second half of the year, but the volume of new energy vehicles may be up to the next year. The output is expected to increase by 15-20% and the income is expected to increase by 20-30% in 22 years. The company has launched three phases of employee stock ownership plan, and the logic of entering overseas major customers through aqueous solvent-free Pu in the medium and long term to drive profit improvement remains unchanged.
Maintain the income of 2.544/3.138 billion yuan / 3.833 billion yuan in 22-24 years. Considering the one-time income contributed by land collection and storage, increase the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 from 184 million yuan to 334 million yuan, maintain the net profit attributable to the parent company in 23 / 24 years to 246 / 320 million yuan respectively, increase the EPS in 22 years from 0.85 yuan to 154 yuan, and maintain the EPS in 23 / 24 years to 1.13 yuan / 1.48 yuan respectively, On April 28, 2022, the closing price was 11.96 yuan, corresponding to PE of 9 / 12 / 9x (excluding land income in 22 years). In the medium and long term, it is still optimistic about the improvement of customer structure and profitability brought by water-based solvent-free products, and maintains the "buy" rating. The average repurchase price of the company is 15.39 yuan and 15.88 yuan, providing a relative margin of safety.
Risk tips
Risk of recurrent outbreaks; Risk of large fluctuations in raw materials and freight; Systemic risk.
