\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Event overview
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: the total revenue of the company in 2021 was 779.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.1%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 18.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.7%. In 2022q1, the company’s total revenue was 182.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 19.4%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 4.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 20.4%.
At the same time, the company announced a dividend plan: Based on the disclosure date of the annual report, a cash dividend of 6.82 yuan (including tax) will be distributed for every 10 shares. According to the closing price of 15.95 yuan / share on April 29, the dividend yield is 4.3%. Analysis and judgment:
Volkswagen gradually improved its revenue and performed steadily
The company’s revenue performance is generally stable, and the epidemic and lack of core affect the sales volume of the joint venture. The total revenue of the company in 2021q4 and 2022q1 was 227.13 billion yuan and 182.47 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.7% and – 3.5% respectively. Mainly due to the impact of the epidemic and lack of core, the sales performance of the whole vehicle is relatively low. The total sales of 2021q4 and 2022q1 companies are 1844000 and 1221000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.2% and + 6.8% respectively. In the joint venture sector, SAIC Volkswagen has gradually improved, and SAIC GM is still under pressure. The sales of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM in 2021q4 are – 17.4% and – 15.3% respectively year-on-year, and + 33.0% and – 18.2% respectively in 2022q1. We expect that with the gradual mitigation of chips, the joint venture is expected to gradually open the replenishment of libraries, driving the upward revenue.
The proportion of SAIC Volkswagen increased, and the marginal income of single vehicle increased. The company’s single vehicle revenue increased rapidly in 2022q1. We believe that it is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen and the seasonal decline in sales volume of Shangtong Wuling. The ASP of 2022q1 company is 149000 yuan (group wide caliber), with a month on month increase of + 26000 yuan. In terms of sales volume structure, the proportion of sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen increased from 21.2% in 2021q4 to 27.1%, and that of Shangtong Wuling decreased from 33.0% in 2021q4 to 26.7%. We expect that the sales volume of Shangtong Wuling will recover rapidly, which will be a drag on ASP in the short term. However, with the improvement of the sales volume of the joint venture and the growth of the sales volume of Zhiji and Feifan high-end models, it is expected that the overall ASP is expected to maintain a steady growth.
The profit of joint venture was recovered rapidly due to the rise of bulk stocks
The rise of bulk commodities continued and the gross profit margin declined. The gross profit margin of 2021q4 company is 5.1%. Due to the adjustment of the standard, the freight in the sales expenses is included in the cost, which is about 2.3pct lower than that in 2021q3. Our judgment is mainly due to the company’s price adjustment and compensation for suppliers in Q4 (mainly batteries) and increased R & D investment in Zhiji and Feifan. 2021q4 R & D expenses increased by 2.23 billion yuan month on month. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 company is 9.4%, mainly driven by the public. The company also carried out price adjustment for Wuling, Feifan and Rongwei brands from March to April, and we expect the profit to recover gradually. The net profit of SAIC Volkswagen single car increased rapidly, and the investment income increased restoratively. In 2021, the investment income of the company’s associates and joint ventures reached 17.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.3%. Mainly due to the rapid increase of SAIC Volkswagen’s profit in 2h21, the net profit of single vehicle of SAIC Volkswagen in 2h21 (consolidated statement caliber) was 10000 yuan, a month on month increase of + 5000 yuan. In addition, the net profit of 2h21 SAIC GM single car reached 7000 yuan, a month on month increase of + 3000 yuan.
The quantity and quality of new energy have increased simultaneously, and the upward pace of brand has accelerated
The sales volume of new energy vehicles of the company has increased rapidly, and the performance of independent new energy is better than that of the industry.
In 2022q1, the company sold more than 192000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 27.7%. The penetration rate of independent new energy has reached 26.7%, exceeding the overall level of the industry. We believe that the company has a deep technological accumulation in new energy, and its ability to create popular products is constantly demonstrated. Zhiji has joined hands with Feifan to accelerate the upward pace of the brand. Zhiji L7 Pro was launched on March 29 at a price of 408800 yuan. It has obvious advantages in modeling, intelligent configuration and performance, and is expected to seize the high-end pure electric market. Feifan R7 prefabricated mass production vehicle has been successfully offline, equipped with high-level intelligent driving scheme and multi-dimensional sensory interactive cockpit, and the intellectualization has been greatly upgraded.
Investment advice
Facing the force majeure of industrial core shortage, the company actively deepened its internal skills, comprehensively optimized its organizational strength and product strength, and accelerated its transformation from the perspective of user operation and experience strategy. The company has solid underlying technology, excellent platform ability and clearer independent growth. With the gradual improvement of chip supply, the company is expected to usher in a new growth cycle of independent + joint venture two wheel drive, and the leader of passenger cars will return. The company is currently at the historical bottom of profitability and valuation. Due to the rising cost and the disturbance of epidemic factors, we adjusted the previous profit forecast, adjusting the income from 869.3/903.8 billion yuan to 861.9/993.3 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent from 331 / 37.9 billion yuan to 269 / 33 billion yuan, and the EPS from 2.83/3.24 yuan to 2.30/2.83 yuan. It is estimated that the company’s income in 2024 will be 1114.4 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent will be 40.5 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 3.47 yuan, Corresponding to the closing price of 15.95 yuan / share on April 29, 2022, PE is 7 / 6 / 5 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The influence of lack of core continues; Downside risk of auto market; Joint venture brand downside risk; The landing of new electric intelligent models is not as expected; Overseas expansion was less than expected.
