\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 67 Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) )
Event overview
Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) publish the annual report of 2021 and the quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 667 million yuan, yoy + 113.79%; Among them, the net income from non-performing debt assets was 585 million yuan and the income from special opportunity investment business was 75 million yuan, contributing 99.06% of the total revenue, yoy + 118.39%; The net profit was 383 million yuan, yoy + 199.96%. By the end of 2021, Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) total assets were 6.654 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.28%; The net assets are 4.741 billion yuan. Earnings per share is 0.5979 yuan, with a weighted roe of 8 43%, an increase of 5.45 percentage points over 2020. In 2021, according to the overall arrangement of "overall resolution and step-by-step implementation" formulated by the debt Committee, the substantive merger and reorganization plan of five companies including Yongtai technology and Yongtai group was ruled by Nanjing Intermediate People's court, and the debt problem of Yongtai group was substantially resolved.
In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 201 million yuan, yoy + 171.95%; The net profit was 127 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 164.95%; The net cash flow from operating activities was - 411 million yuan, which was the increase in cash paid for the purchase of non-performing assets; Quarterly eps0 1986 yuan; The weighted roe was 2.65%, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) total assets were 7.119 billion yuan and net assets were 4.869 billion yuan. Analysis and judgment:
Expand AMC business scope and channels in an orderly manner
The company transformed into AMC in 2016, and its operating revenue and profit level have been significantly improved. In July 2021, the company announced that Haide asset management, a wholly-owned subsidiary, was approved to carry out the pilot business qualification of non-performing loan transfer, and further expanded the business scope of corporate and personal non-performing assets; In August, it announced the establishment of Haide asset management southwest branch to accelerate business expansion and promote the implementation of the project; In the same month, the announcement signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangxi Branch of Oriental asset management company.
Transformation to two wheel drive of capital management and asset management
The company plans to extend the business chain in the next three years, from troubled asset management to comprehensive asset management, and from asset management to capital management. Through Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) and Hyde asset management platforms, the two wheel drive of capital management and asset management will be gradually formed. In terms of capital management, the company will rely on the advantages of cooperation between industry and asset management business to select investment projects in promising fields such as energy storage and new energy. In terms of asset management, the company will deepen the management of troubled assets such as resources and real estate; Take advantage of the professional advantages of enterprise restructuring and asset revitalization to actively participate in enterprise rescue and quality improvement; Actively carry out the acquisition and disposal of personal non-performing assets and expand the field of distressed asset management business.
Investment advice
During the shifting period of economic growth and the painful period of structural adjustment, the opportunities for bail-out management of troubled assets with countercyclical characteristics have increased significantly, and the project supply is sufficient Hainan Haide Capital Management Co.Ltd(000567) is the only A-share non-performing asset management company with AMC license. It is also the only financial stock in Hainan sector. It has the advantages of location, capital, listing platform and talents. The process of resolving the shareholder debt problem has been steadily promoted, which has alleviated the market's concerns about the company's operation and cash flow to a certain extent.
Based on the consideration of orderly promotion of AMC business expansion and expansion of business scope to capital management, we appropriately raised the forecast of the company's total operating revenue of RMB 565 / 622 million from 2022 to 2023 to RMB 767 / 843 million, increased the forecast of 2024 to RMB 902 million, and raised the forecast of eps0 million from 2022 to 202348 / 0.51 yuan to 0.65/0.73 yuan, and increase the forecast value of 2024 by 0.79 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 15.20 yuan / share on April 29, 2022, with PE of 23.36/20.73/19.34 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating of the company.
Risk tips
1) macro aspect: the company's non-performing assets industry is closely related to the real economy, financial risks and regulatory policies. Macroeconomic policies, non-performing assets industry supervision and other factors will have a significant impact on the company's operation, including but not limited to the risk that the economic recovery does not meet expectations, the price of mortgages and pledges decreases, enterprise project operation is difficult, the disposal of non-performing assets projects is more difficult, and the disposal cycle of non-performing assets is prolonged.
2) competition pattern: the number of participants in the non-performing asset management industry has increased, resulting in the risk of intensified competition. The company will face competitive pressure from the five major state-owned asset management companies with first mover advantage, provincial and local asset management companies, financial asset investment companies and secondary market investment institutions.
3) business development: with the expansion of non-performing asset investment scale, the company's internal risk control and compliance ability need to be improved accordingly, and attention should be paid to the capital turnover risk of too fast project investment pace. Moreover, because the specific project information is not available to investors, it is difficult to evaluate the key elements of the project, such as income expectation, risk exposure, industrial concentration and so on.
4) impact of market fluctuations on stock prices: downside risks of global economy, increased uncertainty of international situation and epidemic situation; The risk of significant depreciation of RMB against the US dollar; Fluctuations in US stocks may have an impact on a shares; The control of the epidemic and weak economic recovery may lead to the risk of liquidity tightening.
