\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 139 Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd(601139) )
Key investment points
Event: in 2021, the company achieved revenue of 21.415 billion yuan, an increase of 42.62% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.354 billion yuan, an increase of 2.46%, lower than our expectation; In 2022q1, the revenue was 6.786 billion yuan, an increase of 55.92% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 227 million yuan, with a decrease of 21.04%.
Merger and acquisition of Swick & the increase of gas volume drives the high increase of revenue, and the rise of gas source price drives down the gross profit margin. The high increase of the company’s revenue in 2021 is due to the increase of natural gas sales and the acquisition of Swick. In September 2021, Swick was included in the consolidated statements, with a revenue of 1.734 billion yuan and a net profit of 190 million yuan from September to December. After stripping Swick’s contribution, the company’s revenue in 2021 was 19.68 billion yuan, an increase of 31.07%. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin decreased 6pct to 19.78% at the same time, mainly due to the high growth of global natural gas consumption in 2021 and the sharp rise in international natural gas prices driven by tight supply, which affected the company’s gross margin. In terms of business, 1) urban gas sector: the revenue was 13.052 billion yuan, an increase of 24.73% and the gross profit margin decreased by 7.18 PCT to 21.47%; 2) Gas resources: the revenue was 3.473 billion yuan, an increase of 35.51% and the gross profit margin decreased by 8.14 PCT to 3.71%. 3) Comprehensive energy sector: the revenue was 2.507 billion yuan, an increase of 309.59% and the gross profit margin increased by 6.35pct to 16.17%. 4) Smart service sector: the revenue was 2.071 billion yuan, an increase of 82.74% and the gross profit margin increased by 2.23 PCT to 42.12%.
The gas consumption of new industrial and commercial users and power plants reached a new high, and the areas outside the province expanded rapidly. In 2021, the company’s natural gas sales volume was 4.401 billion m3, an increase of 14.05% and the generation capacity was 811 million m3, an increase of 117%. 1) Pipeline natural gas: in 2021, the sales volume of pipeline gas was 4.024 billion m3, an increase of 22.01% at the same time. a. Shenzhen: the sales volume of urban fuel is 1.040 billion m3, an increase of 10.51% at the same time; The sales volume of the power plant was 1.324 billion m3, an increase of 21.36% at the same time. b. Non Shenzhen: the sales volume of urban fuel outside Shenzhen was 1.66 billion m3, an increase of 31.27% at the same time.
Both sea and land should work together to actively deal with the pressure of gas source. 1) Additional long-term signing Association, supplemented by spot. a. The company has an 80000 m3 LNG storage tank and a 50000 ton LNG wharf with an annual turnover capacity of 800000 tons, and establishes a 7-day urban gas emergency reserve gas source. b. In July 2021, a 12-year import LNG contract related to Guangdong Dapeng LNG processing rights and interests was signed, with a purchased gas volume of 270000 tons / year; c. In October 2021, the company signed a 10-year natural gas procurement contract with Bibi (China), with the contract volume of 225000 T / A from 2023 to 2024 and 300000 t / A from 2025 to 2032. d. It has two 80000 m3 LPG storage tanks with an annual turnover capacity of 960000 tons. 2) Signed a procurement agreement with PetroChina with an annual supply of 4 billion m3 during the stable production period to improve the autonomy of gas sources. In addition, the policy promotes the upstream and downstream price linkage mechanism of natural gas, and the upstream gas source pressure realizes the favorable price to the downstream.
The grid connected Swick photovoltaic power station will promote the layout of comprehensive energy and intelligent services. 1) Photovoltaic field: acquisition of Swick & photovoltaic power station. In September 2021, the company controlled Swick to enter the photovoltaic adhesive film industry. In addition, it acquired 210MW photovoltaic ground power station and invested in the development of three roof distributed photovoltaic projects. 2) Cogeneration: promote the construction of supporting heating pipe network of power plants and expand the scale of cogeneration. 3) Hydrogen energy field: promote hydrogen energy application research and development and technical reserve.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the international natural gas price is still high and the cost pressure is high, we lowered the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 1.890/2.059 billion yuan to 1.411/1.758 billion yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 2.067 billion yuan. The current market value corresponds to 13 / 10 / 9 times of PE in 20222024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the cost of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas sources is rising, the growth of gas volume is less than expected, and the order of photovoltaic film is uncertain.
