\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 68 Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) )
Key investment points
In 2022, Q1 company realized a net profit attributable to its parent company of 168 million yuan, with a significant increase of 171% / 137% on a month on month basis. The median value of performance forecast is higher, which is in line with market expectations. In 2022, Q1 company achieved a revenue of 664 million yuan, an increase of 57.39% year-on-year and 21.68% month on month; Net profit attributable to parent company was 168 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 171.03% and a month on month increase of 137.42%. Net profit attributable to non parent company was 157 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 177.83% and a month on month increase of 60.47%. In terms of profitability, Q4 gross profit margin was 44.42%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.37pct and a month on month increase of 2.28pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 25.22%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.57 PCT and a month on month increase of 12.29 PCT; The non net interest rate deducted in Q1 was 23.7%, an increase of 10.27pct year-on-year and 5.73pct month on month. The company previously predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 was 162172 million yuan, and the performance was above the median value of the forecast, which was in line with market expectations.
In 2022, the shipment of Q1 was 330 million square meters, and the single average net profit increased significantly month on month. The company's Q1 shipment in 2022 is expected to be about 330 million square meters, with a slight increase month on month, and the demand at the downstream of the diaphragm is strong. The company's Q2 production is not affected by the epidemic, and is expected to be further improved month on month. With the release of new production capacity, it is expected to ship 1.7 billion square meters + in 2022, an increase of 40% at the same time. From the perspective of profitability, we calculated that the company's single flat deduction non net profit in 2022q1 was about 0.47 yuan / flat, with a month on month increase of 50% +, and the volume profit rose higher than the market expectation, mainly because Q1 company benefited from LG's demand in 2022, the proportion of overseas customers increased, the product structure continued to improve, and the proportion of coated film further increased to 50% +.
The company has increased its efforts to expand production, and Q3 production capacity will reach a new level in 2022. In 2021, the company will have a production capacity of 1.5 billion square meters, full production and sales, and will further expand the production capacity of dry process and wet process in Changzhou and Sweden. The company plans to have a capacity of 800 million square meters in China and increase the capacity of dry process and wet process from Q3. We expect that the annual diaphragm shipment will be more than 1.7 billion square meters in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 40%; In 2023, the production capacity will be released and the growth will be accelerated. We expect to ship more than 2.5 billion square meters in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of more than + 47%. Due to the tight supply of overseas customers in 20232023, the company is expected to continue to maintain a high profit ratio.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the booming production and marketing of the company and the further improvement of profitability, we maintain the expectation of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 700 / 10.9/1.53 billion from 2022 to 2024, an increase of 149% / 55% / 41%, corresponding to PE 35 / 23 / 16x, give 48xpe for 22 years, target price of RMB 29, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected
