\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
Event: the company announced that the revenue in 2021 was 25.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 7.508 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 0.34%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 13.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.07%.
Key investment points
The year ended smoothly in 2021, and the actual sales of the whole year were brilliant: in 2021, the revenue of Baijiu business was 24.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +21.28%, the sales volume increased by 18% and the price increased by +3%; Among them, the income of medium and high-end products was 21.521 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.95%, accounting for 88.06%. The high growth of dream 6 + promoted the continuous increase of the proportion of medium and high-end products. In terms of sub regions, the company’s revenue in the province was RMB 11.801 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 18.12%. By the end of 2021, there were 2950 dealers in the province, and a single dealer contributed RMB 4 million, an increase of 790000 yuan year-on-year in 2020; The revenue outside the province was 13.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.95%. There were 5192 dealers outside the province, with a single contribution of 2.61 million yuan, an increase of 740000 yuan year-on-year. By the end of 2021, contract liabilities + other current liabilities had amounted to RMB 17.844 billion, an increase of RMB 8.245 billion year-on-year, which shows that the actual sales performance of the company is good. The annual sales gross profit margin was 75.32%, year-on-year +3.05pct, Baijiu gross profit margin was 77.07%, year-on-year +2.60pct, sales expense ratio / management expense ratio was 13.98%/7.22%, year-on-year +1.64/-0.97pct, and sales net profit margin was 29.64%, year-on-year -5.83pct, mainly due to the decrease in the income of trading financial assets in 2021.
The performance of 2022q1 was in line with expectations, and the net interest rate returned to the upward track. The revenue of 2022q1 was + 23.82% year-on-year. By the end of Q1, the contract liabilities + other current liabilities were 10.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64.3%. The gross profit margin of sales was 77.30%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.14pct, and the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio was 6.59% / 4.05% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.28 / – 0.61pct. The cost control was strong, and the net profit margin of sales increased by 1.53pct to 38.29% year-on-year, returning to the upward track of quarter on year.
Internal reform + equity incentive overweight, looking forward to the follow-up performance of the blue classic series: the company launched the equity incentive plan in 2021, with revenue as the target, and the year-on-year growth rate of revenue from 2021 to 2022 is no less than 15%; The company announced its business objectives and achieved a year-on-year increase in revenue of more than 15%. We believe that the company has gone through more than a year of reform. From the current performance of major single products, meng6 + has stood firm at the price of 600 yuan, the crystal version of meng3 has completed the replacement of old meng3 in the province, the replacement and upgrading of tianzhilan has gradually sunk, the suspension and upgrading of haizhilan, and the separate operation of Shuanggou and blue classic series all reflect a benign trend. The company has launched the special marketing action of “70 days of hard work · summer storm” on April 21. The internal mechanism, product pricing and channel performance are stable, which is expected to help the company successfully achieve its business objectives.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company continues to build a large single product, and meng6 + has entered the potential energy track. We adjusted the revenue from 2022 to 2024 to 30.42/35.84/41.28 billion yuan. The sustainability of the impact of the external environmental situation and epidemic control is still uncertain. We temporarily adjusted the EPS to 6.22/7.35/8.53 yuan (6.26 and 7.52 yuan before 2022 and 2023). The corresponding PE in 2022 was 23 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the creation of blue classic series is less than expected, and the impact of the epidemic is more than expected.
