\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Event overview
In 21 years, the company realized a total operating revenue of 13.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.9%. 21q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.8%. 22q1 achieved a total operating revenue of 5.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.9%. In line with market expectations.
Analysis and judgment:
The ton price of main brands increased significantly, and all regions maintained stable and rapid growth
In terms of products, the annual raw pulp / Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) / Yellow Crane Tower achieved revenue of 9.31/16.1/1.13 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 18.8% / + 16.6% / + 168.7%. The original pulp sales volume / ton price of the main brand in the year were + 1.4% / + 17.2% year-on-year respectively. We judge that the main reason is the high increase in the income of gu8 and above products and the obvious improvement in the product structure The sales volume / ton price of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) series were + 24.9% / - 6.6% year-on-year respectively, driving the growth of scale. The sales volume / ton price of Yellow Crane Tower series were + 100.5% / + 34.0% year-on-year respectively. The high increase in revenue was mainly due to the sharp decline in revenue in Hubei region where the brand is located in 20 years affected by the epidemic, with a low base, and the revenue of Yellow Crane Tower was + 26.4% year-on-year in 19 years. Overall, the sales volume / ton price of alcohol were + 16.2% / + 9.0% year-on-year respectively, maintaining the trend of simultaneous rise in volume and price. In terms of channels, online / offline revenue reached 530 / 12.74 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 41.4% / + 28.5%, and the revenue of e-commerce platform increased significantly. In terms of subregions, North China / Central China / South China achieved revenue of 1.07/11.31/880 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 54.5% / + 25.5% / + 51.4%. The company adheres to the development strategy of "nationalization and secondary high-end", continues to deepen the "three links project", the core market in Central China is growing steadily, North and South China adhere to the nationalization strategy, continue to make breakthroughs, and achieve high income growth in 21 years. At the end of 21 years, the number of dealers in North China / Central China / South China increased by 159 / 381 / 72 to 1005 / 2538 / 452 respectively. We believe that the company has an obvious trend of deep cultivation of channels in the province and expansion outside the province.
The product structure was improved, and the profitability of liquor business was improved
The gross profit margin of gujinggong series decreased slightly (- 1.6pct), but the structure of raw pulp products increased significantly in the year. The gross profit margin of 21fy liquor increased from + 1.1pct to 77.2% year-on-year; The overall gross profit margin of 21fy was - 0.1pct to 75.1%, mainly due to the decline of gross profit margin of hotels and other businesses (from - 2.4 / - 12.5pct to 45.1% / 18.4% year-on-year respectively). The increase of promotion and promotion activities leads to the increase of sales expenses, and the employee salary leads to the increase of management expenses, but the sales / management expense ratio decreased slightly, from - 0.1 / - 0.1pct to 30.2% / 8.1% year-on-year respectively. The net profit margin of 21fy was - 0.1pct to 17.9% year-on-year, mainly due to a slight decline in gross profit margin. 22q1 gross profit margin +0.9pct to 77.9%, we judged that the main reason was the strong consumption atmosphere of Baijiu in the core area of Anhui market during the Spring Festival, the high income of gu8 and above products, and the continuous improvement of product structure. The sales expense ratio increased from + 0.6pct to 30.2% year-on-year. We judge that it is mainly due to the increase of promotion and promotion activities during the Spring Festival. The management expense ratio increased from + 0.5pct to 6.3% year-on-year, but it is still lower than the level of 21 years. 22q1 net interest rate rose from + 1.1pct to 21.5% year-on-year.
The products closely follow the upgrading trend of Baijiu consumption in the province, and the brand potential will be released after the epidemic
At present, the competition pattern of "one super and two strong" in Anhui Province has been formed. On the product side, Gujing arranged gu8 and above products in advance at the sub high-end price of Lihe Technology (Hunan) Co.Ltd(300800) yuan, keeping up with the upgrading trend of Baijiu consumption in the province, and the product structure continued to improve. On the brand side, the year's original pulp · Gu 20 was named and broadcast in the CCTV Spring Festival gala for seven consecutive years, which greatly improved the high-end brand potential of the year's original pulp. In 2022, Gu Jing realized the linkage of three stations and exclusively named Anhui and Jiangsu Satellite TV Spring Festival Gala, further increasing the topic heat and brand communication breadth. On the channel side, the "three links project" has established a channel moat in Gujing Province, and consumer cultivation is continuing. Since the Spring Festival, the secondary high-end price belt has been affected by the epidemic, with obvious restrictions on consumption scenarios. Anhui, the core market, is the key control area of the epidemic. Therefore, the company aims to achieve a total operating revenue of 15.3 billion yuan in 22 years, a year-on-year increase of + 15.3%; The total profit was 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.9%, but we believe that Gujing has a stable growth with high certainty in the medium and long term.
Investment advice
Adjusted the profit forecast according to the company's revenue and profit target for 22 years, the operating revenue in 22-23 years was reduced from 16.207/19.179 billion yuan to 15.328/18.666 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.5% / + 21.8%, and a new 24-year operating revenue of 22.079 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased from 2.870/3.503 billion yuan to 2.603/3.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.3% / + 25.3%, and a new 24-year net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.976 billion yuan; EPS is adjusted from 5.43/6.63 yuan to 4.92/6.17 yuan, adding 24-year eps7 52 yuan. On April 29, 2022, the closing price was 195.51 yuan, and the corresponding valuation was 39.7/31.67/25.99 times respectively, which was lowered from "buy" to "overweight".
Risk tips
① the epidemic situation continues to exceed expectations; ② Economic downturn leads to weakening demand; ③ Food safety issues.
