\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 16 Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) )
Key investment points
The company’s performance is slightly lower than market expectations. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 7.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.22%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 11.54%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 42 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.23%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 1.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 22.87%, mainly due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, resulting in the delay of commencement and revenue recognition; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -136678%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was -109 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -137291%.
The whole packaging business continued to be carried out in large quantities, and the cooperation with jd.com was promoted in an orderly manner. In terms of products, 1) in 2021, the company’s revenue from customized furniture and supporting home furnishings was 6.179 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.06%; 2) The income from software and technical services was 29 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.29%; 3) O2o drainage service revenue was 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 23.68%; 4) The revenue from the packaged business was 789 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.14%. The company’s intelligent research and development promoted the optimization of production process, and realized the digitization of decoration by relying on the self-developed BIM system, homkoo packaged cloud and Christmas bird system. In 2021, the company delivered 2703 Christmas birds in five regions including Guangzhou, a year-on-year increase of + 35%; 5) Other business income was 243 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.36%. In terms of offline channels, the company has been deeply engaged in self operated cities and continued to empower stores. By the end of 2021, the company had a total of 379 franchise stores in directly operated and self operated cities, a net increase of 56 compared with the end of 2020; 2236 franchise stores. In terms of online channels, the company’s new home network MCN optimizes the online live broadcast e-commerce mode. In 2021, Gmv reached 230 million. The cooperation with JD has been deepened, and the industrial efficiency of the company has been improved with the help of JD’s brand, supply chain and logistics advantages.
Rising raw material prices put pressure on short-term profits. In terms of profitability, the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 increased from -0.06pp to 33.17% year-on-year; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was -0.33pp to 1.23% year-on-year, mainly due to the change of the company’s net investment income in 2021 and the significant provision for impairment. In terms of period expense rate, the company’s expense rate in 2021 was + 0.34pp to 32.15% year-on-year, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was – 0.15pp / + 0.12pp / + 0.14pp / + 0.37pp to 24.13% / 7.61% / 2.54% / 0.41% year-on-year respectively. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 company was 31.64%, year-on-year -3.84pp, and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was -9.23%, year-on-year -9.79pp, mainly due to the sharp increase of expense rate (+ 8.97pp) during 2022q1.
In 2021, the cash flow and operating efficiency performed well, and the closure and control of 2022q1 epidemic affected the operating efficiency of the company. In terms of cash flow, the ratio of net operating cash flow / net profit of the company in 2021 was 6.02, a year-on-year increase of + 360%, and the cash flow was in good condition. In terms of operational efficiency, the company’s inventory turnover days in 2021 were – 7% to 67.46 days year-on-year, and the turnover days of accounts receivable were + 53% to 6.54 days year-on-year. 2022q1 company was unable to start construction and installation in many places affected by the epidemic, with inventory turnover days ranging from + 15% to 108.00 days and accounts receivable turnover days ranging from + 114% to 14.09 days.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company continues to explore the innovative development mode of the packaged channel business. In the future, the packaged channel is expected to accelerate its growth and its profitability is expected to be gradually repaired. Considering the short-term impact of the epidemic, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 130 / 240 million yuan (originally predicted to be 330 / 460 million yuan), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is expected to be 340 million yuan, corresponding to 37 / 20 / 14x PE from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the price of raw materials rises, and the whole packaging expansion is not as good as we expected.
