\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
Key investment points
In 2022, Q1 company realized a net profit attributable to its parent company of 290 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 145%, which is in the middle of the performance forecast and in line with market expectations. In 2022, Q1 company achieved a revenue of 5.168 billion yuan, an increase of 270.75% year-on-year and 28.96% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 293 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 144.66% and a month on month decrease of 19.25%. The net profit not attributable to the parent company was 296 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 230.01% and a month on month decrease of 12.65%, which was in the median value of the performance forecast and in line with the market expectation. In terms of profitability, Q1 gross profit margin in 2022 was 13.59%, down 2.31pct year-on-year and 3.08pct month on month; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 5.66%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.92 PCT and a month on month decrease of 3.38 PCT; In 2022, the non net interest rate deducted from Q1 was 5.73%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.71pct and a month on month decrease of 2.73pct.
The company expects to ship 18000 tons in Q1 in 2022, an increase of 110% at the same time, and the profit per ton is expected to be 16000 yuan / ton +, which is in line with the expectation. The company expects to ship about 18000 tons in Q1 in 2022, with a slight increase of about 5% month on month and more than double year on year. The company's production expansion is rapid. With the smooth release of production capacity, we expect the company's Q2 production to further increase month on month in 2022. We expect to ship 150000 tons in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 180% +, doubling for two consecutive years. In terms of profitability, we expect the company's net profit per ton of Q1 in 2022 to be about 1 Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) 000 yuan / ton, down about 20% month on month. This is mainly due to the gradual return of net profit per ton to the normal level with the company's low-cost inventory consumption, which is significantly higher than that of Q1 in 2021, which is mainly due to the increase of scale effect and precursor ratio of new production capacity, and the superposition of scale effect and cost reduction with the increase of integration proportion of the company, We expect the annual net profit per ton to remain about 13 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 00 yuan / ton, flat year-on-year.
High nickel is the general direction of industry progress, deeply binding downstream customers, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Ningde, and the leading position of high nickel is stable. The performance of high nickel batteries has been greatly improved and there is much room for cost reduction. As the general trend of the industry, the share will continue to increase. H1 is expected to accelerate with the mass production penetration of 4680 batteries in 2022. By the end of 2021, the production capacity will be 120000 tons. The company expects that the production capacity will exceed 250000 tons by the end of 2022. In 2025, the company will expand the production capacity of high nickel cathode to more than Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons, and the production capacity planning is huge. The company is the main supplier of high nickel in Ningde. We expect that the company is expected to support 3007.5 9100000 tons of high nickel ternary cathode in 2022. At the same time, the company has signed a supply agreement of 30000 tons of high nickel cathode in 2022 with Funeng and a supply agreement of 30000 tons in 20222025 with Weilan new energy to ensure the location of the main supplier. At the same time, it has also signed strategic cooperation agreements with honeycomb energy, Weilai, etc., and cooperated with skon, SDI, northvolt, etc. The company has high order certainty in 2022. We expect that the company's shipment in 2022 is expected to reach 150000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 180% for two consecutive years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is the leader of high nickel cathode, with improved capacity utilization and integrated production. The profitability is gradually restored, and it is expected to maintain high growth in the next few years. We maintained the previous forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.807/28.21/4.020 billion from 2022 to 2024, increased by 98.37% / 56.11% / 42.50% at the same time, gave 30xpe in 2022, the target price was RMB 120.9, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, the release of production capacity is lower than expected, and the nickel price is higher than expected.
