\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) )
Key investment points
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 was 1.493 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of – 23.62% / – 81.75%, lower than the market expectation. Q1 achieved a revenue of 48.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.97% and a month on month decrease of 14.59%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.493 billion yuan, down 23.62% and 81.75% respectively, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 977 million yuan, down 41.57% and 85.71% respectively. In terms of profitability, Q1 gross profit margin was 14.48%, with a decrease of 12.8pct and a ring decrease of 10.22pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 3.07%, down 7.13pct at the same time and 11.29pct at the same time; The non net interest rate deducted in Q1 was 2.01%, down 6.71pct at the same time and 9.99pct in ring, lower than the market expectation. The decline in profitability was mainly due to the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate.
Q1 battery has strong production and sales, with a new global share, which is expected to more than double in the whole year. According to SNE’s Q1 global installed capacity of 33.3gwh, the market share has increased to 35%. Considering the demand of vehicle enterprises for goods preparation and energy storage in advance, we expect the Q1 battery output to be 60gwh +, with a slight increase month on month, with a shipment of 50gwh +, with a month on month ratio of + 165% / – 15%, including 45gwh of power battery and 5gwh of energy storage. Affected by the epidemic, we expect the company’s output to decline by about 20% month on month in April and return to normal in mid May. Q2 is expected to increase by about 10% month on month. The shipment volume is expected to be 50-55gwh, and Q3 output is expected to recover. Considering the peak sales season of electric vehicles in the second half of the year, the sales volume of Q3 and Q4 will increase significantly month on month. It is expected that the annual shipment volume can reach 280290gwh, more than doubling, of which the energy storage is expected to be 40gwh.
The price of Q1 battery basically did not rise, while the sharp rise of raw materials led to a significant decline in gross profit margin. Q2 began metal linkage pricing, and the profit is expected to rise rapidly. Lithium, cobalt and nickel began to rise at the beginning of last year and have risen sharply in the fourth quarter of last year. So far, the impact of raw material M-1 pricing method and inventory, and the cost rise is mainly reflected in Q1 this year. We calculate that the cost of three yuan 523pack of Q1 company is 0.89 yuan / wh (excluding tax), an increase of 0.12 yuan / wh month on month, the cost of lithium iron phosphate pack is 0.7 yuan / wh, an increase of 0.1 yuan / wh month on month, and the cost of Q4 is expected to increase by only 1-3 points / wh. Q1 company is in price negotiation with automobile enterprises. The average price of Q1 is expected to remain basically unchanged. The gross profit margin of Q1 power battery is expected to decline by 10PCT to nearly 12% month on month, and the gross profit margin of energy storage is expected to decline by 8pct to nearly 14%. The cost of Q2 battery rose further, but at the end of the first quarter, the company and car enterprises have basically negotiated the metal linkage pricing, which is expected to rise by 30% – 40%. Considering the confirmation problem, the average price of Q2 is expected to rise by more than 20%, and the profitability will be significantly repaired.
Accelerate the layout of the upstream, lead the industry with technological innovation, and be optimistic about the long-term growth of the company. The company has increased its investment in Jiangxi and Indonesia, respectively distributing lithium and nickel, which is conducive to long-term cost reduction and ensuring resource supply. The company focuses on basic research and development, leads battery technology innovation, ranks first in the world, and is optimistic about sustainable growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of the rise in raw materials, we revised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 24.3/401/56.6 billion yuan (the original forecast was 28.6/430/59.9 billion yuan), an increase of 53% / 65% / 41% at the same time, and the corresponding PE was 39 / 24 / 17x. We gave 58xpe in 2022, the corresponding target price was 605.52 yuan, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the competition intensifies
