\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 11 Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) )
Key investment points
Event: the company announced that in the first quarterly report of 2022, the revenue was 1.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 50 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 5.00%; After deduction, it was 32 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 16.49%.
High base effect + small absolute amount + price disturbance of raw materials, Q1 net profit is slightly lower than expected. According to the company's announcement, Q1 achieved a revenue of 1.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 50 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 5.00%; After deduction, it was 32 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 16.49%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was slightly lower than our expectation. Our estimation is mainly due to: 1) the Q1 net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 is the highest value since 2013, which has a high base effect. 2) The absolute amount of Q1 net profit data is small, so it is easy to be disturbed by a single project. Taking 2021 as an example, Q1 net profit deducted from non parent company accounts for only 16.46% of the whole year. 3) In Q4 of 2021, the price of lithium bromide, the raw material of the company's waste heat business, rose sharply, eroding the company's performance. In Q1 of 2022, there is still some long tail effect.
Sufficient cash reserves on hand + substantial increase in inventory, escorting the release of performance.
By the end of Q1 2022, the company had 1.226 billion yuan of monetary capital and 966 million yuan of trading financial assets, totaling 2.192 billion yuan, with sufficient reserves of bullets in hand. Inventory + prepayment totaled 1.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.35%; Contract liabilities amounted to 764 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.46%. Sufficient cash reserves on hand + substantial increase in inventory, escorting the release of performance.
The prosperity of the cold chain continues to be high, and the orders and production scheduling of equipment manufacturing enterprises have been full until the second half of the year.
1) epidemic situation catalysis: Wuhan south China fresh food market and Beijing Xinfadi are cold chain fresh food concentration places, and the catalysis of epidemic situation puts forward higher standards for cold chain logistics; 2) Policy promotion: before 2021, the investors of cold chain logistics are generally industrial and commercial customers. After 2021, driven by the central and local policies, many government customers (including supply and marketing cooperatives) invest in the construction of cold chain logistics as the owner; 3) Consumption upgrading: after the epidemic, many ordinary residents have changed their consumption habits and put forward higher requirements for the quality of cold chain logistics; 4) Technology promotion: at the technical level, the improvement of safety and environmental protection standards and the accelerated promotion and application of new technologies provide a sustainable driving force for the rapid development of the industry; With the boost and catalysis of multiple positive factors, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to improve. According to our tracking of the industrial chain, the leading equipment enterprises have full orders on hand, and the production capacity has been arranged to the second half of the year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company's EPS forecast of 0.62, 0.89 and 1.00 yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the corresponding PE is 15, 10 and 9 times respectively. Based on the high prospect of the cold chain logistics industry, we maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material prices, intensified industry competition, and the development of cold chain logistics industry does not meet expectations
