\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 271 Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) )
Steady growth in performance, benefiting from steady growth and new project layout. Maintain "buy" rating
The company released an annual report. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 31.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.0%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.1%, and a deduction of non net profit of 3.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.1%. At the same time, the company released its first quarterly report. In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 6.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.07%, and a deduction of non net profit of 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; The company undertook equity incentive expenses of 63 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 181.1%. Excluding the impact of equity incentive amortization expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 was + 20.83% year-on-year. In the context of the continuous tightening of policies in the real estate industry and the sharp rise in the price of building materials and raw materials, the company's endogenous competitiveness is fully displayed and its performance has increased against the trend. Benefiting from the dual development of infrastructure and real estate, the short-term demand can be repaired, and the long-term growth logic remains unchanged. Considering that the real estate infrastructure is still at the bottom of the industry, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 5.06/65.3/8.01 billion (the previous performance in 20222023 was RMB 5.69/7.21 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 20.4% / 29.1% / 22.6%; EPS is 2.01/2.59/3.18 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price, PE is 22.6/17.5/14.3 times. Maintain the "buy" rating.
The gross profit margin is under periodic pressure, and the price increase is expected to transmit the cost pressure
In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's sales was 30.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5pct; In 2022, the gross profit margin of Q1 company's sales was 28.3%, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.6pct and a month on month decrease of 2.0pct. By industry analysis, the gross profit margins of the company's waterproof material sales, engineering construction and other businesses in 2021 were 32.2%, 28.4% and 16.1% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6pct, 0.1pct and 3.7pct. The decline in the company's gross profit margin was mainly caused by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as asphalt, polyether and modifier and the maintenance of high operation. In 2021, the proportion of direct materials in the operating cost of waterproof business was 88.91%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.52pct. The company has raised the price of its main products since March 16, 2022, gradually transmitting the cost pressure to the terminal, and the profitability is expected to be repaired.
At present, it is expected to benefit from the steady growth policy, capacity channel expansion and TPO contribution to growth
The current policy of benefiting from steady growth: the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee set the tone for steady growth, supported all localities to improve real estate policies based on reality, and the central financial and economic conference put forward a moderately advanced layout of comprehensive infrastructure; In the context of steady growth, the government's special debt focuses on supporting infrastructure construction, promoting the continuous recovery of infrastructure construction, loosening the real estate regulation policies in the short term, and boosting the confidence of the industry; Benefiting from the dual efforts of real estate and infrastructure, the short-term demand can be repaired. Capacity channel expansion and TPO contribution growth: the waterproof business of the company has significant scale advantages, and the accelerated layout of capacity and channel expansion will further consolidate the leading position of waterproof; The company carried out multi category expansion and coordinated development with the main business to supplement the growth power of C-end; In the context of dual carbon goals, building photovoltaic integration will become the mainstream of distributed photovoltaic. The company has a significant first mover advantage in the research and development of TPO waterproof coiled material technology. At the same time, it has carried out TPO photovoltaic integration cooperation with Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Xinyi power supply and Shenzhen Ruihe Construction Decoration Co.Ltd(002620) to actively explore the market and is expected to open up the second growth curve.
Risk warning: rising cost of raw materials; The new production capacity was put into operation less than expected; Policy dividend is less than expected
