\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 599 Beijing Shengtong Printing Co.Ltd(002599) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 2.405/0.68/0.58 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18% / 120% / 116%, an increase of 23% / – 52% / – 54% compared with 19 years. The revenue met the requirements and the net profit was lower than that of equity incentive. 21q4 company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 573 / – 03 / – 10 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 2% / 99% / 97%. 22q1 company’s income / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 513 / – 0.25 / – 27 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 17% / – 205% / – 222%.
Analysis and judgment:
The printing and packaging sector grew steadily, and Lebo was still at a loss due to the epidemic. In terms of business, the revenue of publishing / packaging and printing / student service / institutional service in 2021 was RMB 16.48/3.37/3.03/118 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2% / 78% / 77% / 86%. The revenue of comprehensive publishing service increased by 8% compared with 19 years, the revenue of student service decreased by 8% compared with 19 years, and the revenue of institutional service (Education 2B business) Zhongming digital increased by 93% compared with 19 years. (1) The growth of main printing and packaging industry is mainly due to: 1) the expansion of packaging production in Tianjin; 2) After the epidemic, there was a strong demand for pharmaceutical packaging. Although the double reduction policy has an impact on teaching aid printing, the proportion of teaching aid in the company is not high. (2) The education business suffered losses due to the epidemic.
Provide certain guarantee for advance collection business. In 2021 / 22q1, the contract liabilities of the company were 264 / 250 million yuan, with 21q4 increasing by 19% compared with 21q3 and 22q1 decreasing by 5% compared with 21q4. We judge that the number of new registrations in 22q1 of the company is estimated to increase in high double digits from January to February, but the number of new registrations due to repeated outbreaks in mid and late March is basically stable.
In the 21st year, the gross profit margin gradually recovered and the net profit margin turned around. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 19.93%, an increase of 3.19pct year-on-year and a decrease of 3.25pct compared with 19 years. The net interest rate in 2021 was 3.03%, with a year-on-year increase of 20.60pct and a decrease of 4.58pct compared with 19 years. In terms of expense rate, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate in 21 years was 5.33% / 10.51% / 1.74% / 0.38% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.00/1.22/0.20/0.01pct, of which the management expense increased by 33% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of equity incentive expenses and the implementation of talent strategic plan; Sales expenses increased by 17.89% year-on-year, mainly due to the fact that they no longer enjoy the reduction and exemption policies enjoyed for 20 years due to the epidemic in 21 years. The gross profit margin of 22q1 was 13.44%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.67pct. Our analysis is mainly due to the impact of the outbreak of 22q1 on the full shift rate. The decrease of gross profit margin combined with the increase of expense rate, and the company’s 22q1 net profit margin was – 5%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.32pct.
Investment advice
According to our analysis, the company’s focus in the future lies in: (1) the education sector pays attention to the post double reduction era, the competition of discipline training is weakened, and the full class rate of quality education is expected to increase, which will bring about the repair of net interest rate, but this will be disturbed by the epidemic stage; (2) The Ministry of education has issued a new curriculum standard to set up information technology disciplines separately, which is good for children’s Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , programming and other quality education in the long run; (3) The industry advance collection was changed from annual to quarterly, which was beneficial to the improvement of industry concentration.
Recently, in the new curriculum standard adjustment plan of 2022, the education department further increased the proportion of Chinese and mathematics, decreased the proportion of English, further increased the proportion of sports and other quality classes, and set up two new courses of “information technology” and “labor”. According to our analysis, the emphasis of this “information technology” discipline lies in: (1) in this round of curriculum, it is officially independent from the “comprehensive practical activities” according to the requirements of the central government and implemented as an independent curriculum subject uniformly set up throughout the country; Prior to this, the content related to information technology was only included in the comprehensive practical activity curriculum in the stage of compulsory education, or set up in some provinces and cities in the form of local courses. (2) According to the standard, “information technology” will cover Grades 1-9 and be opened separately in grades 3-8. The proportion of converted nine-year total class hours must reach 1% – 3%. (3) From “information technology” to “information technology”, it reflects the transformation from teaching computer operation and the use of software and hardware to improving students’ digital literacy and promoting students to understand and recognize the scientific essence behind information; The information technology course has designed the content module and interdisciplinary theme of the whole learning period of compulsory education around the six main lines of data, algorithm, network, information processing, information security and artificial intelligence. The “algorithm” was only opened in senior high school.
Considering the impact of the epidemic, the income forecast for 22 / 23 was lowered from 2776 / 3134 million yuan to 2629 / 2970 million yuan, the new 24-year income forecast was 3.34 billion yuan, the net profit forecast for 22 / 23 was lowered from 131 / 146 million yuan to 120 million yuan, the new 24-year net profit forecast was 140 million yuan, the corresponding EPS forecast for 22 / 23 was lowered from 0.24/0.27 yuan to 0.19/0.22 yuan, and the new 24-year EPS forecast was 0.26 yuan, On April 29, 2022, the closing price was 4.33 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 22 / 23 / 24 years, which were 23 / 20 / 17x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The risk of intensified market competition, the risk that the implementation of the company’s strategy fails to meet expectations, the risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of repeated epidemic and systemic risk.
