\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
The company's second price HPV vaccine batch issuance rhythm is smooth, exceeding market expectations, and the production and marketing are booming
After the vaccine products are produced, they need to be sent to the Central Inspection Institute for batch issuance before they can be officially sold. Therefore, the rhythm of batch issuance of vaccine is one of the important links affecting the sales of vaccine products. According to the data of the Central People's Procuratorate, as of April 30, 2022, the company has issued 109 batches of bivalent HPV vaccine in batches this year. We speculate that the batch issuance volume is about 9.5-10 million, of which Q1 is about 6.5-7 million and April is about 3-3.5 million. The monthly output and batch Issuance volume are expected to exceed 3 million, exceeding market expectations. Considering the current situation that the supply of HPV vaccine in China is in short supply, the company's bivalent HPV vaccine is currently in a state of booming production and marketing. The significant increase in the number of batches issued will help the company's bivalent HPV vaccine business to increase rapidly.
Government projects improve people's awareness of HPV vaccination. The company's products have pricing advantages and open up a broad market space
According to the calculation of the number of HPV vaccine batches issued by the Central People's Procuratorate, a total of about 20 million people in China have completed the whole process of HPV vaccination from 2017 to 2021. There are about 381 million women aged 9-45 in China. At present, the penetration rate of HPV vaccination among school-age women in China is only about 7%. We believe that there is still much room to further improve the penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China. On the one hand, with the official launch of the "global strategy for accelerating the elimination of cervical cancer" by who in recent years, China has responded to the call of who, and the Health Commission has launched pilot projects in many provinces and cities to promote free vaccination of cervical cancer vaccine in some age groups. Some local governments paid for the domestic HPV vaccine, further promoted the publicity and popularization of HPV vaccination, and improved the public's awareness of the harm of cervical cancer and HPV vaccination. On the other hand, the pricing of bivalent HPV vaccine products of the company has significant price advantages over imported HPV vaccines. The single price of bivalent HPV vaccine of the company is only about 40% of that of tetravalent HPV vaccine and about 25% of that of nine valent HPV vaccine. We believe that the company's pricing fully considers the accessibility of HPV vaccine. The lower pricing strategy opens the gap with imported products, making people more willing to pay for HPV vaccine, thus promoting the rapid and large-scale growth of the company's products after listing, and further improving the penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China. Based on two major factors, the annual profit forecast was raised again
Considering that China's HPV vaccine is still in an unbalanced state of supply and demand, the company's bivalent HPV vaccine will increase rapidly and in large quantities, and the output and batch issuance rhythm will continue to exceed expectations. At the same time, the rapid and large-scale growth of products will bring large-scale effects and improve the company's net interest rate. Therefore, based on two major factors: (1) referring to Q1 and April 2022, the company's HPV vaccine production and batch issuance quantity continue to exceed expectations, and the annual HPV vaccine production and sales volume are expected to exceed our previous expectations; (2) We estimate that the company's net profit margin of HPV vaccine in Q1 has reached about 45%. As the production and sales of HPV vaccine continue to rise and exceed expectations, the net profit margin of HPV vaccine business in the whole year is expected to exceed our previous expectations.
Based on the above two unexpected factors, we raised the company's profit forecast for 20222024. From 2022 to 2024, the company's operating revenue increased from 10.779/14.9/18.258 billion yuan to 11.417/16.158/20.279 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from RMB 4.060/60.11/7.680 billion to RMB 4.660/68.67/9.188 billion; Due to the conversion of the company into shares, the adjusted EPS is 5.29/7.80/10.44 yuan, corresponding to the share price of 161.4 yuan / share on April 29, 2022, and the PE is 30 / 21 / 15 times. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The company's bivalent HPV vaccine sales are less than the expected risk; With the market competition of other domestic HPV vaccines in China, the risk of product price reduction is intensified; The sales of the company's in vitro diagnosis business is less than the expected risk; The R & D Progress of the company's nine price HPV vaccine and other products under development is less than the expected risk.
