\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Event: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 63.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 8.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.5%, deducting 8.486 billion yuan of non attributable net profit, a year-on-year increase of 252.4%.
The company achieved an operating revenue of 24.685 billion yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of 132.5% and a month on month increase of 47.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 5.194 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 513.0% and a month on month increase of 129.5%.
Comments:
The business volume of silicon materials increased simultaneously, and the production capacity continued to expand. In 2021, the company's output of high-purity crystalline silicon ranked first in the world, and its market share in China reached 22%. In 21 years, the 50000 ton Leshan phase II and 50000 ton Baoshan phase I projects have been put into operation successively, with a production capacity of 180000 tons. At present, the capacity under construction includes the 50000 ton project of Baotou phase II, which is expected to be put into operation in 22 years, and the 120000 ton project of Leshan phase III, which is expected to be put into operation in 23 years. After reaching the production capacity, the capacity will reach 350000 tons. In the past 21 years, all bases maintained full production and sales, and the sales volume of silicon materials was 107700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. The high-purity crystalline silicon and chemical business realized a revenue of 18.761 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 66.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 31.99pct. In recent years, the company has carried out long-term single order sales cooperation with downstream mainstream silicon wafer enterprises without locking quantity and price. The single crystal rate of silicon material products has exceeded 99%, and the batch supply of n-type material has been realized. In terms of cost, the average comprehensive power consumption per unit of the company's products decreased by 12% year-on-year, and the steam consumption decreased by 55% year-on-year. Many other core indicators were also optimized to varying degrees, and the core competitiveness of the enterprise continued to improve.
Battery shipments ranked first in the world, and multi technology routes were developed in parallel. By the end of the year, the company has an annual capacity of 45gw of battery chips. In 2022q1, Tongwei Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) plans to invest in the construction of 32g high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery project in Meishan. It is expected that the capacity will reach 80-100gw by the end of the year. The annual sales volume of battery chips and components reached 34.93gw, with a year-on-year increase of 57.6%, realizing a revenue of 24.935 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 8.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7pct, mainly due to the mismatch between supply and demand in the industrial chain. The company arranges the production and operation according to the market demand and the production line structure. The products are directly sold to downstream module enterprises from Shuangliu, Jintang, Meishan, Hefei and other production bases, and the main customers cover the top ten photovoltaic module enterprises in the world. In terms of cost, the price of raw materials rose and the profitability of the industry decreased in the past 21 years. Under the condition that the operating rate of the industry was significantly reduced, the capacity utilization rate still reached 99.47%, and the sales volume increased rapidly. The average non silicon cost of single crystal perc battery has been reduced to less than 0.18 yuan / W, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, of which the cost of large-size non silicon has decreased more significantly. At present, the company's large-size production capacity of 182 and above has accounted for more than 70%. In terms of technology research and development, the company has newly put into operation 1gwhjt pilot test line. At present, the efficiency of hjt research and development and mass production have been greatly improved; At the same time, the pilot production of TOPCON based on 210 size is carried out. At present, 1GW project has been successfully put into operation, and the product mass production conversion efficiency is leading in the industry; The high-speed photovoltaic technology center also further strengthens the research and development of industry cross generation technology, HBC, perovskite, laminated battery / module and other cutting-edge technologies.
Promote the innovative development model of "integration of fishing and light" to realize complementary advantages. By the end of the 21st century, the company had built 48 photovoltaic power stations focusing on "integration of fishing and light", with a cumulative installed capacity of 2.7gw, an annual settlement of 3.090 billion kwh, and a revenue of 1.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.9%. The company will continue to promote the "integration of fishing and light" development model, organically integrate agricultural advantages and photovoltaic resources, and create differentiated core competitiveness. In terms of feed business, the operating revenue was 22.379 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.60%, and the feed sales volume was 5.5159 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The company has completed the acquisition of Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) its feed business, which will further form an industrial synergy with complementary advantages, improve the market share and consolidate the leading position in the industry.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 98.271 billion yuan, 112517 billion yuan and 135736 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 54.8%, 14.5% and 20.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.647 billion yuan, 17.048 billion yuan and 17.154 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 90.6%, 9.0% and 0.6%. The current share price corresponds to 11.82, 10.85 and 10.79 times of PE from 2022 to 2024 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the new installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than the expected risk; Less than expected risk of capacity expansion; The research and development of battery technology is less than the expected risk.
