\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 946 New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) )
Event: New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, the company realized an income of 8.967 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase ratio of + 32.87%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 312 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.23%. Excluding the impact of equity incentive, the net profit attributable to the parent was + 33.21% year-on-year. In 2021q4, the revenue was 2.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.79%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 56 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 34.43%. In 2022q1, the company realized a revenue of 2.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.02%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.70%.
The year 2021 has ended successfully and 22q1 has made a good start. In 2021, the company’s liquid milk revenue reached 8.3 billion yuan, an increase of 32.34% at the same time; The revenue of milk powder was 72.95 million yuan, an increase of 4.77%. In terms of regions, the income of Southwest / East / North / Northwest / other regions was 3.613/21.90/8.65/14.31/867 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.25% / + 29.87% / + 21.44% / + 105.45% / + 51.74%. From the perspective of sales model, the direct sales / distribution revenue was 4.230/4.143 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 27.38% / 37.15%. Among the main participating and holding subsidiaries, the income of Chongqing Tianyou / Sichuan dairy / Kunming Xuelan / Huanmei dairy was 25.52/16.13/12.13/1.753 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.7% / + 16.2% / + 7.7% / + 105.4% (Xiajin’s base is 2020h2 income). The epidemic has made residents pay more attention to nutrition and health, strengthened the consumption awareness of dairy products, and further improved the penetration rate of fresh milk with advantages in active nutrients and freshness. In 2022q1, the company realized a revenue of 2.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.02%, continuing the high boom in 2021.
The gross profit margin remained stable throughout the year, and the Q1 net profit margin increased year-on-year. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 24.56% in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 0.1pct; The net interest rate was 3.81%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.48pct, mainly due to the increase in advertising expenses. During the period, the promotion expenses and advertising expenses were 570 / 170 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 44.2% / + 25.2%. By quarter, the gross profit margin of 22q1 was 24.0%, with a month on month ratio of + 1.87pct and a gross sales difference of 9.40%, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.66pct and a month on month ratio of + 1.02pct. The profitability improved quarter by quarter. Q1 net interest rate was 1.97%, year-on-year + 0.25pct, mainly from the fair value income contributed by interest rate swap business. The consolidation profit level remained stable, and the gross profit margin continued to improve month on month.
Endogenous extension and simultaneous drive, and comprehensively promote the “fresh cube strategy”. 2021 is the first year for the company to formulate new strategies and start a new journey. Facing the goal of doubling in three years, the company continues to upgrade the original “fresh strategy” to “fresh cube strategy”, build a more three-dimensional strategic layout and competitiveness, and constantly expand the layout and construction of upstream and downstream industrial chains. In 2022, under the guidance of the “fresh cube strategy”, we will strive to achieve an increase of more than 20% in revenue, further improve the net interest rate and increase both revenue and profit in 2022.
Profit forecast: we adjusted the profit forecast for 20222023 according to the annual report and the first quarterly report, and introduced the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the operating revenue for 20222024 will be RMB 11.10/136.5/16.68 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.8% / + 23.0% / + 22.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 420 / 5.5/710 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 34.8% / + 31.2% / + 28.2%, corresponding to PE 21 / 16 / 13 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the competition slows down, which is lower than expected, and food safety problems
