\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 399 Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) )
Events
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022 on the evening of April 29. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 1.822 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 85 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.58%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 65 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.84%; EPS is 0.0433 yuan.
Commentary
Q1 the increase of expense rate leads to pressure on performance. Q1 company's revenue decreased by 1.3%; Net profit attributable to parent decreased by 13.27%; The gross profit margin was 15.82%, with a ring increase of 0.37 PCTs; The net interest rate is 4.69%, minus 0.63 PCTs; The management fee was 84 million yuan, and the expense rate increased by 2.66 PCTs; The R & D cost was 98 million yuan, and the cost rate increased by 2.4pcts. The sales volume of alloy structural steel of Q1 company is 57400 tons, with a ring decrease of 6.5% and a ring decrease of 1.7%; The sales volume of tool steel is 16300 tons, with a ring decrease of 17.7% and the selling price of 2.1%; The sales volume of stainless steel is 22700 tons, with a ring decrease of 1.7% and the selling price of 7.6%; The sales volume of superalloys was 18000 tons, with a ring increase of 28.6%, and the selling price increased by 2.4%. In 22 years, the company plans to achieve steel output of 680000740000 tons and steel output of 54 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 0000 tons, including 75 Anhui Huamao Textile Company Limited(000850) 00 tons of "three high and one special" core products.
The technical transformation project of superalloy has been continuously promoted. In 22-23 years, the company plans to invest 1.076 billion yuan to build a technical transformation project, which mainly includes the improvement of military product production capacity, the construction of one 12 ton vacuum induction furnace (imported), three 12 ton vacuum consumable furnaces (imported) and corresponding auxiliary facilities, so as to increase the production capacity of induction steel by 4800 tons / year and the production capacity of consumable steel by 5400 tons / year; The production capacity of the rolling line and cooling bed area of the continuous rolling plant is increased by about 200000 tons / year; 12 protective atmosphere electroslag furnaces will be built to increase the capacity of electroslag steel by 28800 tons / year. It is expected that the capacity increment of technical transformation projects in 23-24 years will begin to reflect.
The company is an old brand leader of superalloy, and its growth can be expected. The high-temperature alloy produced by the company accounts for more than 80% of the aerospace market, and the ultra-high strength steel accounts for 95%. The future main demand for superalloys comes from the large volume of military products and domestic aircraft during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The characteristics of high industrial technical barriers and high production capacity concentration make the company's products have higher added value and greater performance flexibility. The domestic aircraft C919 was officially mass produced in 21 years. It is estimated that the demand for Superalloy in 25 years is 31000 tons, with an annual growth rate of 3.1%.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 790 million yuan, 1066 million yuan and 1386 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.4 yuan, 0.54 yuan and 0.7 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE will be 37 times, 27 times and 21 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The output release of high-end products did not meet expectations; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Demand growth did not meet expectations.
