\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 318 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) )
Performance overview
22q1, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) net profit attributable to parent company 20.658 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%; The operating profit attributable to the parent company was 43.047 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%; The value of new business was 12.589 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 33.7%.
Core concerns
1. Operating profit: steady growth, rapid growth in banking and technology
Ping An’s operating profit grew steadily. Among them, the banking and technology business grew rapidly. The bank increased by 26.8% to 7.448 billion year-on-year, and the technology business increased by 17.7% to 2.745 billion year-on-year. As Ping An’s dividend is linked to the company’s operating profit, based on the steady growth of operating profit, the company’s dividend policy is expected to remain stable.
2. Life insurance: NBV is under pressure, and its products and channels are further explored
The decline of NBV is also affected by the decrease of new single premium and the decline of new business value rate. 22q1, affected by the sharp decline of manpower and the continuous weakening of market demand, the new single premium was 51.203 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%; The value rate of new business was 24.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8pt, mainly due to the suspension of the sale of serious illness insurance with high value rate in the same period last year, which supported the high base of value rate, and the company increased the sales promotion of savings products in response to market demand this year, reducing the overall value rate.
In terms of channels, the number of agents at the end of 22q1 was 538000, a month on month decrease of 10.4%, a significant year-on-year decrease of 45.4%. However, from the perspective of team structure, it has been optimized. The proportion of college degree or above has increased by 3.5pt year-on-year, which is mainly due to the company’s promotion of the layered and fine operation of the team. At the same time, life insurance deepened its cooperation with Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) to build a new talent team of bancassurance, which is expected to reach 2000 this year.
In terms of products, the increased lifetime product – “Shengshi Jinyue”, launched by Ping An, has a good sales volume. At the same time, it helps product sales by building a service system of health services, high-end elderly care and home-based elderly care.
3. Property insurance: the premium increased steadily and the comprehensive cost rate increased
In 22q1, the premium of Ping An Property Insurance was 73.018 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. Among them, automobile insurance was stable, with a growth rate of 10.4%, and non automobile (excluding accident and health insurance) increased slightly by 2.1%. The comprehensive cost rate of property insurance was 96.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6pt, which was mainly due to the increase of overdue repayment by enterprises and individuals and the increase of compensation of the company’s credit guarantee insurance.
4. Insurance investment: the investment scale increased steadily and the income decreased greatly
22q1, the insurance investment scale was 4.1 trillion, an increase of 4.6% compared with the beginning of the year, the net investment return rate was 3.3%, and the total investment return rate was 2.3%, which decreased significantly, mainly affected by the low interest rate shock and the decline of the equity market.
Profit forecast and valuation
Ping An’s reform exploration started early. At present, it has entered a more pragmatic deepening stage. The company’s comprehensive financial and medical health ecosystem has obvious advantages, which is expected to bring the first manifestation of the effectiveness of the reform. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) net profit attributable to parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.6% / 18.5% / 18.4%. The current price corresponds to 0.55/0.52/0.48 times PEV from 2022 to 2024. Maintain the target price of 77.0 yuan, corresponding to pev0.5 yuan of 2022e group 95 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The progress of reform has been slow, the economic environment has deteriorated, the long-term interest rate has fallen sharply, and the real estate risk has expanded.
