\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Matters:
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022, and achieved an operating revenue of 13.27 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 28.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.298 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 5.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%. In 2021, the company plans to pay dividends of 2.20 yuan per share. In 2022, the company’s planned operating revenue target is 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%; The profit target was 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%.
Ping An View:
Hui liquor leader rose step by step and exceeded the set goal. The year-on-year target of 12.09 billion yuan was achieved, with a year-on-year excess revenue of 12.09 billion yuan and a year-on-year excess revenue of 2.8 billion yuan. Among them, the operating revenue of single Q4 company was 3.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 329 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.8%. During the Spring Festival of 22 years, the banquet scene in Anhui resumed, and the company’s products at all prices sold well and made a good start. 22q1 achieved an operating revenue of 5.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.9%; Contract liabilities amounted to 4.692 billion yuan, up from + 157.1% month on month at the end of the year, with excellent payment collection.
The performance of raw pulp was strong in the year, and the ton price contributed to the performance growth. In terms of products, the company’s annual sales revenue of raw pulp series in 2021 was 9.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.8%, of which the sales volume / ton price were + 1.4% / + 17.2% year-on-year respectively, and the ton price contributed to the main growth The sales revenue of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) series was 1.609 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.6%, of which the sales volume / ton price were + 24.9% / – 6.6% year-on-year respectively; The sales revenue of Yellow Crane Tower series was 1.134 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 168.69%, of which the sales volume / ton price were + 100.5% / + 34.0% year-on-year respectively. In terms of subregions, the revenue of central China increased by 25.5% year-on-year to 11.311 billion yuan; The revenue of North / South China increased by + 54.5% / + 51.4% year-on-year to RMB 1071 million / RMB 878 million.
The operating cash flow increased and the profitability increased steadily. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 75.10%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.1pcts; During the period, the expense rate was 36.76%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.8pcts, of which the sales expense rate decreased by 0.1pcts to 30.20% year-on-year; The net interest rate decreased by 0.1pcts to 17.89%. The company’s 22q1 gross profit margin was 77.90%, year-on-year + 0.9pcts; The sales expense ratio increased from + 0.6pcts to 30.16% year on year; The net interest rate was + 1.1pcts to 21.46%, and the profitability increased steadily. In terms of cash flow, the net operating cash flow of 22q1 company was 2.776 billion yuan, an increase of + 302.1% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in cash received from the sale of goods.
Anhui Province has good dynamic sales, and gu8 and above products continue to grow. Anhui was less affected by the epidemic in the first quarter. The number of people returning home during the Spring Festival increased year-on-year, the restrictions on the mobility of people in the province were small, the consumption level was generally stable, and the mobile sales of Baijiu was better than in previous years. According to the channel research, benefiting from the economic development of Anhui, the mainstream price band of Huizhou wine continues to rise. The market of medium and high-grade products of gu8 and above is smooth, and the expected revenue accounts for nearly 40%. Among them, GU20 leads the structural upgrading, and gu8 and gu16 undertake the demand for gifts and banquets. 22q1 company’s payment collection is faster than that of the same period last year, and the terminal is actively preparing goods. While realizing large volume, it maintains stable price and benign channel.
The expansion outside the province is unstoppable, and accelerate the expansion of high-quality dealers. Gujing actively expands the market outside the province, adjusts the investment promotion strategy according to local conditions, carries out refined cost investment, realizes the mental cultivation of consumers outside the province, accelerates the process of nationalization, and makes a breakthrough from Anhui to the Yangtze River Delta and North China core sector markets such as Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei, Jiangxi, Shanghai and Hubei. In 2021, the number of dealers in North China, South China and central China increased by 159 / 72 / 381 to 1005 / 452 / 2538 respectively year-on-year. With the expansion of new markets, high-quality dealers outside the province accelerated their expansion. With the positive effect of brand launch and channel strategy, the company will steadily move towards the goal of 20 billion revenue and 40% of the revenue outside the province. The brand potential is expected to continue to improve.
Investment suggestion: driven by the double wheel drive of the year’s raw pulp series and channel advantages, with the help of national expansion, the company’s brand potential will be released faster. We are optimistic about the continuous expansion of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) in the sub high-end price band. The top 20 single products in ancient China are expected to fully undertake consumption upgrading and promote the improvement of product structure. Adjust the EPS forecast of 20222024 to 5.65, 7.24 9.02 yuan (the original EPS forecast from 2022 to 2023 was 5.71 yuan and 6.97 yuan). The current stock price corresponds to PE 34.6x, 27.0x and 21.7x, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the risk of macroeconomic weakness. Affected by the epidemic, economic growth declined and consumption upgrading did not meet expectations, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of the consumer side; 2) Baijiu industry prosperity downside risk. The prosperity of Baijiu industry is highly correlated with the price trend. If the price of Baijiu drops, the growth of enterprise revenue may slow down significantly. 3) Policy risk. The demand and tax rate of Baijiu industry are greatly affected by the policies. If the relevant policies change, it may have a great impact on the enterprise’s revenue and profit. 4) The risk of epidemic aggravation. Under the aggravation of the epidemic, the consumption scenes of Baijiu are reduced, which may have an impact on the prosperity of Baijiu industry.
