\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 487 Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) )
Matters:
The company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 4.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.28%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 577 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.17%, and a net profit of 562 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 24.23%; It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.22 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 934 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.03%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 62 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.92%.
Ping An View:
The shipment volume of tower increased rapidly and the profitability was outstanding. In 2021, the company's Tower output was about 564000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 42.8%, and the sales volume was 490000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 19.9%; Due to the increase in the proportion of offshore wind power products with relatively high prices and the rise in the price of raw materials, the revenue per ton in 2021 was about 8900 yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 10.6%. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's tower business was 22.32%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.83 percentage points. It is estimated that the gross profit per ton in 2021 was 1985 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 40 yuan, and the net profit per ton was 1180 yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 40 yuan. In the first quarter of 2022, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 13.49%, down 7.23 percentage points month on month, lower than the market expectation; The gross profit margin of wind power tower industry decreased in the first quarter of 2022, which may be affected by the price fluctuation of raw materials. Compared with its main competitors, the company has obvious advantages in shipment growth and single ton profit. By the end of the first quarter, the company had placed 450000 tons of orders for various towers / pipe piles and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of intended orders.
Accelerate the layout of offshore wind power production capacity and meet the golden age of offshore wind power. The trend of global offshore wind power development is relatively clear. The company's main offshore wind power production base is Penglai base. At present, the planning of several new bases is being promoted. In June 2021, the company signed the investment framework agreement on offshore wind power heavy equipment project with Rushan City, and planned to build wind power tower manufacturing, wind power pipe pile manufacturing and wind conductive pipe frame manufacturing projects in three phases; In February 2022, the company and Dandong Donggang government reached a preliminary intention to cooperate to build an offshore wind power equipment manufacturing industrial park. After the project is put into operation, it will radiate the wind power offshore basic product market around the Bohai Sea and Northeast Asia; In March 2022, " Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) marine equipment manufacturing project (high tech Zone)" was included in the preparatory project for the key construction of Guangdong Province in 2022. The main products of the project cover a full range of wind power marine infrastructure products, which will radiate the global markets such as Guangdong, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan and Southeast Asia after being completed and put into operation; With the implementation of these new production bases, the scale of the company in offshore wind power tower / pipe pile is expected to be greatly improved. At the same time, the company is about to make a breakthrough in the export of offshore wind power pipe piles. The first batch of single pile products exported to Europe will be shipped in 2022.
New businesses such as wind farms and blades are accelerating and will soon become new performance growth points. Up to now, the company's 300MW wind farms in Fuxin, Liaoning, Zhangjiakou, Hebei and other places are under construction. It is planned to be completed and connected to the grid in 2022, which will contribute to stable power generation income at that time; According to the company's plan, 2 million kilowatts of new energy projects will be completed in the next three years, and 5 million kilowatts of new energy development resources will be reserved. The company plans to set up onshore and offshore wind power blade manufacturing companies. The blade production base project of Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) (Yantai) wind power Co., Ltd. has been included in the company's fixed raising and investment project, and 320 sets of 7-13mw wind power blades can be produced every year after reaching the production capacity.
Attaching importance to internal management and R & D is expected to further strengthen competitive advantage. The company established the "onshore operation center" in 2021. The onshore operation center manages and operates three onshore tower production bases (Fuxin production base in Liaoning, Xing'an League production base in Inner Mongolia and Zhangjiakou production base in Hebei) to integrate the project planning, materials, transportation, after-sales, equipment and other resources of onshore wind power business, so as to realize the rapid allocation and overall management of resources and realize the transformation of the plant from organizational structure, management rules Standardization of all processes for technical process quality. At the same time, the company increased its R & D efforts and invested 183 million yuan in R & D expenses in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 38%; The company has built an R & D team of more than 100 people and will further carry out technical breakthrough in "R & D and industrialization of new coating technology of offshore wind power equipment", "R & D and industrialization of offshore long-life and high-power floating foundation design / manufacturing technology", "R & D and industrialization of manufacturing technology of offshore wind power super large pipe pile products".
Investment advice. Considering the covid-19 epidemic and the competitive situation of the wind power industry chain, adjust the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 897 (original value of 10.36), 13.59 (original value of 16.08) and 1.873 (New) billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.5 billion yuan 61, 2.45 and 3.37 yuan (not considering the increase of share capital caused by future non-public offering), dynamic pe13 2. 8.7, 6.3 times. Offshore wind power has a large growth space. The company has the potential to become the leader of global offshore wind power pipe piles and maintain the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning. 1) The progress of the new offshore wind power pipe pile production base is less than expected; 2) The installed capacity of offshore wind power is less than expected; 3) The sharp fluctuation of raw material price and exchange rate may affect the profitability of the company; 4) The industry competition intensifies and the profitability is lower than expected.
