\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 468 Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. The company achieved an operating revenue of 25.3 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%; The net loss attributable to the parent company was 910 million yuan, which turned from profit to loss on a year-on-year basis; A net loss of 940 million yuan was realized after deducting non attributable assets, a significant increase over the loss of the previous year (30 million yuan). The company will not pay dividends in 2021. The company’s operating revenue in the first quarter of 22 years was about 7.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%; The year-on-year loss is about 100 million yuan, and the net profit is about 100 million yuan; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was about 90 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year.
In the past 22 years, the market share of Q1 express business increased. In 2021, the number of express orders of the company was about 11.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, which was lower than the growth rate of 4.52 pct of national express orders. In 2021, the express business volume of the company accounted for 10.2% of the business volume of national express service enterprises, a decrease of 0.37pct compared with the same period of last year. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s express delivery volume was about 2.7 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, exceeding the national express order volume by 15.7 PCT, accounting for 11.1% of the National Express business volume, an increase of 1.4 PCT over the same period of last year.
The single ticket revenue rebounded in Q1 in 22 years, and the express business revenue maintained growth. In 2021, the company’s express business revenue was about 24.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with the same period of last year; The single ticket income was about 2.22 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 8.4%, significantly lower than the decrease in the same period of last year (22.1%). In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s express product revenue was about 6.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%; The single ticket revenue was about 2.58 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with the same period of last year, an increase of 10.1% compared with the fourth quarter of 2021.
The decline of single ticket cost is lower than that of single ticket income, and the gross profit margin of express business decreases. In 2021, the cost of express service of the company increased by 16.2% year-on-year, and the cost of full caliber single ticket was about 2.22 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 5.8%. Among them, the cost of single ticket delivery, single ticket transit and single ticket transportation changed by – 9.2%, – 3.0% and + 1.4% year-on-year respectively. The decrease of single ticket cost is mainly due to the gradual improvement of capacity utilization brought by the company’s capacity launch, as well as the improvement of express service efficiency and the reduction of operation cost brought by the company’s improvement of refined management. Comprehensive income cost: in 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s express business was about 2.2%, down 0.9pct from the same period of last year.
Initial results have been achieved in capacity investment, and the profitability of the company has rebounded. In the first three quarters of 2021, due to the impact of site relocation, project completion delay and other factors, the overall single volume throughput scale was limited, resulting in high operating costs and low capacity utilization, and the company failed to achieve profitability. In the fourth quarter of 2021, with the continuous growth of the company’s business volume, the capacity utilization rate is gradually improved, and the scale effect is reflected. If the asset impairment loss is excluded, the company’s operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 is about 70 million yuan, turning from loss to profit compared with the first three quarters of 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 106 million yuan, and achieved a single quarter profit for the first time since 2021.
Investment suggestion: the company will continue to strengthen production capacity investment, with the goal of exceeding 50 million orders / day by the end of 2022. In the next three years, the company will invest 10 billion yuan to carry out production capacity improvement projects based on diversified financing channels; In addition, the company continues to implement fine management, promote the cost reduction and efficiency increase of the whole network, and promote the restoration of profitability. Based on the gradual improvement of the company’s fundamentals, we raised the company’s 22-23 year net profit forecast by 418% / 253% to 710 million yuan and 890 million yuan respectively, and increased the 24-year net profit forecast by 1.13 billion yuan; Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuation risk leads to the decline of express demand; Industry competition exceeds expectations, resulting in the decline of single ticket income, which affects the profit level of the company; The implementation of administrative supervision is lower than market expectations.
