\u3000\u30006 Oceanwide Holdings Co.Ltd(000046) 00004)
Event:
Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) released the first quarterly report of 2022
In terms of business, the company completed 85900 flights / yoy-10.20%, 8.4604 million passengers / yoy-20.44% and 505100 tons / yoy + 8.88% of cargo and mail throughput in the first quarter of 2022, respectively reaching 70.79%, 46.62% and 117.44% of the same period in 2019.
In terms of finance, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.239 billion yuan / yoy + 4.51% in the first quarter of 2022, up from 64.59% in the same period in 2019; Net profit attributable to parent company: - 83 million yuan / yoy + 46.55%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company - 91 million yuan / yoy + 45.23%.
Key investment points:
The results showed that the revenue increased slightly by 53 million
Driven by the pick-up of Spring Festival transportation demand and the increase of holiday travel, the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) cumulative passenger throughput from January to February increased by 12.65% year-on-year. However, due to the interference of the local epidemic in March, the passenger throughput of the company decreased by - 56.74% year-on-year, less than 40% in the same period in 2019, and the passenger throughput in the first quarter decreased by 20.44% year-on-year. However, the company actively carries out efficiency creation work, excavates the potential of the Chinese market, and improves the efficiency of resource use by vigorously carrying out business such as changing customers to goods. Under the adverse circumstances of the decline in passenger transport demand, the company's operating revenue increased by 53 million yuan year-on-year, up 4.51% year-on-year.
The cost reduction continued to advance, and the loss narrowed by 72 million year-on-year
In terms of cost reduction, the company took multiple measures to continuously optimize the cost structure. In the first quarter, the management expense decreased by 15 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.41%; The total operating cost was reduced by 21 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.50%. In addition, benefiting from the increase in investment income of logistics subsidiaries, the net investment income in the current period increased by 10 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.61%. Under the joint action of the above factors, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of -83 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 72 million yuan.
Repeated outbreaks did not hinder the hub status, and patiently waited for the inflection point of passenger flow
Recently, affected by the continuous impact of the epidemic plus industrial safety accidents and other factors, China's aviation travel demand has been restrained, the industry boom is low, and the company still faces great operating pressure in the medium and short term. However, as one of China's three gateway complex hub airports, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) natural monopoly status has not changed, and its essence as a high-end traffic platform has not changed. Before the epidemic, tax exemption helped the company greatly improve the flow realization efficiency. Under the epidemic, LV and other luxury brands settled in, and the airport tax business ushered in a new chapter of development. It is expected to promote the airport passenger flow realization efficiency again in the future. With the official announcement of the diagnosis and treatment plan for novel coronavirus (trial version 9), China's anti epidemic has entered the second half of the year. On the opening day of the country, when the value returns, the company continues to be optimistic about the long-term investment value of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: comprehensively considering the impact of the current epidemic and the company's future business recovery progress and other factors, it is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.213 billion yuan, 5.817 billion yuan and 8.542 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be - 120 million yuan, 136 million yuan and 1.810 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 217 times and 16 times of PE in 2023 and 2024 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic rebounds again, major policy changes, infrastructure progress is less than expected, store investment is less than expected, etc.
