\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 995 China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 5.1 billion yuan (yoy-15%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.7 billion yuan (yoy-11%), and a weighted average roe2.5% 01%（YoY-0.67pct），EPS0. 318 yuan (yoy-15%).
On the whole, the performance of Q1 company is greatly affected by the market:
1) the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q1 was – 11% year-on-year and – 40% month on month. The decline of the company’s performance was mainly due to the downward fluctuation of the Q1 market and the pressure on the brokerage and investment income, while the outstanding performance of the investment bank made the company’s performance growth still significantly better than that of its peers.
2) the company’s q1roe level reached 2.01%, down 0.67pct year-on-year and 2.0pct month on month.
3) the leverage ratio of the company was 6.42 times, down 0.17 times from the end of last year, still significantly higher than that of the same industry.
4) investment banking, investment and brokerage business have the highest contribution, accounting for 30%, 29% and 26% respectively, and the remaining asset management and interest net income account for 7% and – 3% respectively;
5) the income of investment banking and asset management business increased positively, with a year-on-year increase of + 59% and + 2% respectively, and the income of brokerage and investment business increased by – 11% and – 46% respectively.
The investment banking business performed well, and the IPO scale increased significantly year-on-year: 1) according to wind data, Q1 company completed an IPO scale of 10.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 259%, accounting for 8% of the market, ranking fifth in the industry. 2) The refinancing scale was 14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 68%, accounting for 6% of the market, ranking sixth in the industry. 3) The bond underwriting scale was 129.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54%, accounting for 8% of the market, ranking fifth in the industry.
Brokerage and financing fluctuate with the market, and the investment income is under short-term pressure: 1) the transaction volume of stock base in Q1 market is 1089.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7%, and the company’s brokerage business income is – 11% year-on-year, which is expected to be mainly affected by the year-on-year decline in the income of financial products sold on a commission basis; 2) By the end of March, the balance of two financing in the whole market was 1.67 trillion, down from – 9% at the end of last year. The company’s financing scale was 36.2 billion yuan, down from – 8% at the end of last year. 3) Q1 investment revenue fell – 46% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in market fluctuations and the decrease in the net income related to the company’s equity investment. The valuation of OTC derivatives fluctuated with the change of stock market price. As of the end of March, the company’s derivative financial assets were 20.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 39%.
Investment suggestion: buy – a investment rating. The company’s investment banking business has solid advantages and is expected to significantly benefit from the implementation of the comprehensive registration system reform policy. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 12.2 billion yuan, 13.6 billion yuan and 15.8 billion yuan respectively. Give the company a target price of 48.1 yuan, corresponding to 2.5x2022epb
Risk tips: liquidity has been greatly tightened, policy promotion has been less than expected, and the capital market has fluctuated sharply
