\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 946 New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) )
Event: New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the annual operating revenue was 8.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.87%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 312 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.23%; 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.79%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 56 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 34.43%. 22q1 achieved an operating revenue of 2.317 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.02%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.70%.
The strategic objectives have been exceeded, and new products have been produced frequently, contributing to the increment. 1) In terms of products, liquid milk / milk powder / other products achieved revenue of RMB 8.301/0.73/593 billion respectively in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 32.34% / + 4.77% / + 45.92%. Among them, the income of fresh milk increased by 35% year-on-year, and the market share was further improved; The revenue of ultra-high-end low-temperature fresh milk products increased by about 50% year-on-year; The revenue of Zero sugar series low-temperature yogurt increased by more than 150% year-on-year; The income of high-end white milk increased by nearly 100% year-on-year. At the same time, the company continued to strengthen the innovation of new products, and the revenue contributed by new products accounted for more than 10% in 2021. 2) In terms of regions, the revenue of Southwest / East / North / Northwest in 2021 was RMB 36.13/21.91/8651431 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.25% / + 29.87% / + 21.44% / + 105.45%. 3) In terms of channels, the revenue of direct sales / distribution / other channels in 2021 was 4.231/41.43/593 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 27.38% / + 37.15% / + 45.92%; The regional e-commerce revenue increased by 80.77% year-on-year.
Continue to promote integration and M & A and actively enrich the business structure. The company continues to make efforts in M & A integration and extension expansion to help scale growth. 1) Xiajin dairy’s revenue increased by 18% year-on-year in 2021, and its net profit increased by more than 20% year-on-year. 2) At the end of the 21st century, it acquired 5% equity of Australia Asia Investment and reached long-term strategic cooperation to further lock in high-end and high-quality milk sources. 3) Complete the acquisition of “one sour cow” project and smoothly cut into the current milk making and drinking track.
The upgrading of product structure and the improvement of internal management efficiency have driven the gross profit margin to rise steadily and slightly. Reducing the impact of equity incentive expenses, the company’s net profit increased by about 33% year-on-year in 2021. 1) In 2021, the annual gross profit margin was 24.56%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.08pct, mainly due to the optimization of product structure, the pulling of new products with high gross profit and the optimization of internal management, covering the cost side pressure. The annual sales expense ratio in 2021 was 13.91%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.26pct; The management expense ratio was 5.49%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.02pct. Overall, the annual net interest rate in 2021 was 3.48%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.53pct. 2) The gross profit margin of 2022q1 company was 24.00%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.30pct; The sales expense rate and management expense rate were 14.60% / 5.28% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.64 / -0.96pct, mainly due to the company’s reasonable control over the investment of expenses. The net interest rate of 2022q1 company was 1.88%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.42pct.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the synchronous development of the company’s endogenous extension, the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 years was raised to 446 / 571 million yuan (up 1.36% / 3.44%), and the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 24 years was increased to 722 million yuan, equivalent to 0.51/0.66/0.83 yuan of EPS in 20222024. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 22x / 17x / 14x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the cost of raw materials fluctuated, and the growth of core products did not meet expectations.
