\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Key investment points
Event: Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) released the 21st Annual Report and the first quarterly report of 22 years. The company achieved a revenue of 20.642 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 23.96% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.956 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.47%. 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 6.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.72%.
In the 21st year, the Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) performance was higher than the forecast value, and the revenue successfully exceeded 20 billion. In 2021, the company’s medium and high-end liquor / other liquor achieved a revenue of RMB 18.397/2.018 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.22% / – 8.74%. In the past 21 years, the revenue of medium and high-grade liquor has remained close to 30%, and the volume and price have contributed 25% / 3% respectively. It is expected that it is mainly due to the effective implementation of the strategy of “entering the East and rising in the South” of Guojiao 1573 and the restorative growth of Tequ series after several years of volume control and price increase. The revenue of other wines declined in the past 21 years, which is expected to be mainly due to the decline in sales caused by the replacement of Erqu. At the same time, the company began to upgrade and raise the price of low-end wines, driving the ton price to increase by about 89% year-on-year, and then driving the gross profit margin of low-end wines to increase by 4.9pcts. On the cost side, the cost rate of the company fell by 1.2pcts during the 21 years. In terms of detailed disassembly, the sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate changed by – 1.12% / – 0.74% / 0.19% / – 0.25% year-on-year. The optimization of the sales expense side is mainly due to the company’s initiative to adjust the channel mode and shrink the channel fee investment when the sales volume reaches a certain level, so as to realize the benign and favorable price sales of large single product channels such as Guojiao, At the same time, the overall profitability of Laojiao was significantly improved, driving the net profit margin to increase by 2.67pcts to 38.45%.
22q1 performance exceeded market expectations, and Guojiao & Tequ two wheel drive continued to rise. 22q1 under the impact of the epidemic, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) revenue / net profit attributable to parent increased by 26.15% / 32.72% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The company continued to focus on the development pattern of “double brands, three lines and large single products”, and successfully built a national cellar 157.3 billion level large single product in the high-end 1000 yuan price segment. The low-grade national cellar developed rapidly in North China and other markets, becoming a rapid growth in the price of Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) yuan. The contribution of Tequ series began to increase after Huke therapy in previous years, and successfully built a national cellar Tequ two wheel drive development. 22q1’s gross profit margin / net profit margin increased by 0.39% / 2.25% year-on-year, and the sales expense rate was optimized by 2.82%, continuously improving the overall profitability.
The implementation of equity incentive continued to strengthen, the performance increased rapidly, and the 1000 yuan price belt continued to expand and grow. In 2021, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) equity incentive was successfully implemented, a long-term incentive mechanism for the core management was successfully established, the enthusiasm of the management was fully stimulated, and the war of “from defense to attack and comprehensive rejuvenation” was launched in an all-round way to ensure the high-quality completion of the company’s performance objectives. The market may worry that the low-grade national cellar in North China and other places will reduce the height of the whole brand. We believe that there are objective regional differences in the high-grade and low-grade consumption habits of Baijiu. The low-grade and high-grade are two different Baijiu subdivisions, which are not expected to have an impact on the overall potential of the national cellar. The market may be worried that the intensification of competition in the 1000 yuan price belt will affect the overall growth rate of Guojiao. We believe that Guojiao, as the third bottle of national famous wine, still has room to expand and sink in North and South China. We continue to be optimistic about Guojiao’s expansion bonus at the price of 1000 yuan, and continue to strengthen the implementation and flexibility of policies after the implementation of management incentives.
The nationalization of Guojiao was promoted as scheduled, and the secondary high-end of Tequ began to increase in volume, maintaining the “buy” rating. We expect to achieve revenue of 25.522/30.693/36.149 billion yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 23.6% / 20.3% / 17.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.343/13.15/15.911 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.0% / 25.8% / 22.3%; Corresponding to pe29 98/23.83/19.49X。 Considering the promotion of nationalization of national cellars and the performance flexibility of starting volume of medium-sized liquor, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the competition of 1000 yuan price band intensifies; The movable pin is less than expected; The epidemic situation is repeated.
