\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 754 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) )
Key investment points
The company released the 22q1 performance report: the company achieved a revenue of 2.322 billion yuan / + 0.97%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 120 million yuan, compared with 183 million yuan in the same period last year, with a loss of 62.68 million yuan, mainly due to the relocation compensation income obtained in 22q1; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -218 million yuan, compared with -161 million yuan in the same period last year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 90.52 million yuan, compared with 496 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to the suspension of payment of operating funds due to the impact of the epidemic and business transformation.
The performance of 22q1 in Chinese Mainland is expected to be about 49million yuan (a profit of 24million yuan in the same period last year), and the loss of Louvre is about 37million yuan. In terms of splitting, ① revenue side: the domestic revenue in Chinese Mainland is 1.691 billion yuan / -8.23%, of which the early franchise fee income is -29% and the continuous charge is +3%; The overseas revenue of Chinese Mainland was 572million yuan / +46.12%, the control of overseas travel policy was relaxed, and the operation of the company’s overseas limited service hotels was significantly improved over the previous year. ② Performance side: Louvre group lost 23.9 million euros in 22q1 (loss of about 169 million yuan, exchange rate of euro to RMB 7.0847), and lost about 206 million yuan in 21q1. The expected profit of RMB 49million in Chinese Mainland in Q1 22is in line with the expectation (domestic RevPAR is -10.69% year-on-year, and the profit of RMB 24million in mainland China in Q1 21is about).
RevPAR in China recovered to 72.6% in the same period of 19 years, and the overall RevPAR overseas recovered to nearly 80% in the same period of 19 years. 1) Operating data in China: ① revpar:22q1 the overall RevPAR in Chinese Mainland is expected to be 104.41 yuan / -10.69%, recovering to 72.6% in the same period of 19 years. Among them, economy hotels recovered to 65.46% in the same period of 19 years, and middle-end hotels recovered to 64.65%. The overall recovery degree of RevPAR is higher than that of subdivided hotels, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of middle-end hotels. ② Average house price: the average house price within the company (overall, economical, medium and high-end) has increased by 1-5% compared with 21q1; The prices of economical and mid-range hotels have recovered to more than 90% in the same period of 19 years, showing good resilience. ③ Occupancy rate: the overall hotel OCC in China was 50.81%, down 8.12pct compared with 21q1 and 19.7pct compared with 19q1. 2) Overseas business in Chinese Mainland: the overall RevPAR outside China was 25.95 euros / +47.28%, which was significantly improved and recovered to 79.77% in the same period of 19 years.
The impact of the epidemic on new stores slowed down year-on-year, and the number of pipelines increased by 110 month on month. 1) New stores: affected by the epidemic situation in Guangdong and Shanghai in the first quarter, 22q1 company opened 232 new stores, a year-on-year decrease of 115; Among them, 88 hotels opened and exited (64 in the same period last year), with a net increase of 144 hotels, a year-on-year decrease of 13. As of 22q1, the company has opened 10757 hotels. 2) Structure: in the net increase of hotels, 142 medium and high-end hotels and 2 economical hotels. As of 22q1, the company’s mid-range hotels accounted for 52.61% and increased by 0.6pct month on month. There was a net decrease of 4 Direct stores and a net increase of 148 franchisees. As of 22q1, the company’s Direct stores accounted for 8.5%, down 0.2pct month on month. 3) Pipeline: as of 22q1, the number of pipelines of the company has reached 4870, an increase of 110 compared with the end of 21.
Affected by the epidemic, the gross profit margin declined, and the overall period rate was -14.65pct year-on-year. The epidemic affected the gross profit margin of 22q1 company by 23.3% / – 14.4pct; In terms of expense ratio, the sales rate of 22q1 was 6.8% / – 14.5pct, and the management expense was 585 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, accounting for 25.2% / + 2.5pct of revenue, or mainly due to some rigid expenses. The financial rate is 4.92% / -2.47pct, and the overall period rate is 37.42% / -14.65pct.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic has disturbed the recovery progress of hotel operation, and the company’s pipeline has increased by 110 month on month, laying a good foundation for the subsequent expansion of stores. It is optimistic that the company’s operation will warm up and accelerate the expansion of stores after the epidemic is controllable. Considering that the current epidemic in China has not been completely controlled, the company’s profit forecast is temporarily lowered. It is estimated that the company’s performance in 22-24 years will be 150 / 15.1 / 2.35 billion yuan, with the corresponding growth rates of 50% / 901% / 55% respectively.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated, macroeconomic fluctuation risk, travel policy change risk, overseas business recovery is less than expected, and the speed of opening stores is less than expected
