\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Key investment points:
Cheese consumption has just started in China, and the per capita consumption is very low, far less than that of Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. At present, in the Chinese market, the proportion of cheese in dairy consumption is too small, while the consumption of liquid milk is basically saturated. The advanced category is the development trend of dairy consumption, and the consumption share of cheese will continue to expand. From the perspective of cities, the penetration rate of cheese consumption among families in cities at all levels in China is not very different, while the cheese consumption level in offline cities improves faster and wider.
Since 2017, the company has gradually switched its business strategy to cheese business. In recent years, the sales growth of cheese is much higher than the industry average, and the company's position in the cheese market has also improved rapidly. The company's cheese production capacity increased from 10400 tons in 2018 to 78400 tons in 2021, with an average annual increase of 96.54%, keeping a high growth rate in line with sales and revenue. The volume, price and sales of cheese have achieved high growth for five years: from 2017 to 2021, the company's cheese sales increased from 5800 tons to 54600 tons, with an average annual increase of 75.66%, and the unit price of cheese increased by 16.8% in the same period. Driven by volume and price, the company's revenue increased by 105.99% annually in the same period.
From 2021, the company began to seek the "second growth curve" to cope with the development of the future market. Whether the company can successfully achieve the "second growth" is the most important factor in the future stock price performance. Following historical cases, we believe that new categories are expected to help the company achieve the goal of "second growth".
Investment rating: Based on our prediction of the company's "secondary growth", it is predicted that the company's earnings per share in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 0.77 yuan, 1.35 yuan and 2.19 yuan respectively, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 157.47%, 75.15% and 62.59% year-on-year respectively. Referring to the closing price of 30.06 yuan on April 28, the corresponding P / E ratios are 39.03 times, 22.28 times and 13.7 times respectively. For the first coverage of the company, we give a "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the growth of residents' income slows down and the consumer market is weak; The repeated epidemic situation interferes with economic operation and residents' consumption; Potential risks in food safety; On May 16, 2022, the company will experience a lifting of the ban on restricted shares in the secondary market, which may cause fluctuations in the stock price.
