\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 42 Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) )
The company released the first quarter report of 2022 on the evening of April 28, 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 656 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.27%; The net profit was 38.62 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.09%.
Key points supporting rating
The number of pcv13 batches issued continued to grow, leading the company’s sales to further increase. In 2022q1, the company’s pcv13 received a batch of 2.0857 million doses. A year-on-year increase of 26.92%. In 2021, pcv13 contributed about 2.746 billion yuan of revenue to the company. We expect that the sales of pcv13 in China will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2022. At the same time, with the addition of the cooperation agreement of 2 million doses exported to Morocco, this heavy variety will bring more performance. Affected by the who-pq production transformation, the number of batches issued by the company’s traditional varieties has decreased significantly. According to the plan, the PQ transformation should have been basically completed and waiting for acceptance. The issuance volume and sales volume of batches are expected to recover gradually in the future.
R & D expenses and sales expenses increased significantly. The company’s R & D expenses in 2022q1 were about 139 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 169.71%. The company’s R & D investment has a high proportion of expenses. Previously, the company’s 2021 annual report disclosed that the capitalized R & D expenditure accounted for only 17.56%, releasing the pressure of R & D expenditure in advance. The company’s mRNA covid-19 vaccine pipeline has entered the end of clinical phase III, and the data is being cleaned up, waiting to be exposed. In 2022q1, the company’s sales expenses were about 257 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 63.57%. The company said that it was mainly due to the increase of promotion expenses.
Hpv2 has entered the production stage, and heavy varieties are worth looking forward to. The subsidiary hpv2 was approved to be listed in March 2022, with a price of 319 yuan / 329 yuan. The suitable population is women aged 9-30, and the standard vaccination procedure is 3 shots. HPV vaccine is a vaccine that China and who focus on Promoting Popularization, which can significantly reduce the risk of cervical cancer in women. At present, there are only Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , domestic manufacturers of HPV vaccine approved for marketing.
The R & D pipeline has rich attractions and can be expected in the future. There are four covid-19 related products in the company’s clinical R & D pipeline: mRNA vaccine, chimpanzee virus vector vaccine, recombinant protein vaccine and recombinant protein variant vaccine. And tetravalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine, hpv9, tetravalent influenza vaccine, tetravalent vaccine and EV71.
Valuation
We maintain the previous profit forecast. Without considering covid-19 vaccine, we predict that the company will realize operating revenue of 5.635 billion yuan, 6.864 billion yuan and 8.255 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 respectively; The net profit was 1.307 billion yuan, 2.048 billion yuan and 2.534 billion yuan, maintaining the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
R & D is less than expected, approval and supervision risks, sales are less than expected, and the epidemic situation changes.
