\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 597 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) )
Event:
On April 29, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022: Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 1.898 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 66.91% and a month on month increase of 3.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 442 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.21% and a month on month decrease of 4.71%. In Q1 2022, the gross profit margin of the company reached 34.26%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.27 percentage points and a month on month increase of 2.28 percentage points; The net interest rate reached 23.28%, up 4.82% year-on-year and down 2.11% month on month.
Key investment points:
Sucralose reached full production and Q1 performance improved significantly
In Q1 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 1.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 66.91% and a month on month increase of + 3.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 442 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110.21% and a month on month decrease of 4.71%. The company's annual output of 5000 tons of sucralose reached full capacity in the first quarter of 2022, and the output, sales volume and sales price of sucralose increased by different ranges compared with the same period of last year; At the same time, due to rising costs, the company adjusted the prices of other food additives and bulk chemicals by different ranges. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the company's revenue rose slightly month on month, showing the stability of the company's production and operation; The net profit attributable to the parent decreased slightly, mainly due to the decrease in investment income obtained from financial products and trading financial assets. In terms of period expense ratio, the company's sales / management / financial expense ratio in 2022 and Q1 was 0.92% / 4.27% / 0.06% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.24 / - 2.36 / - 0.42pct and a month on month ratio of -0.45 / - 0.32 / - 0.25pc. The period expense control was excellent; Meanwhile, the net cash flow from Q1's operating activities in 2022 reached 211 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 339.05%, mainly due to the increase in cash received from the sale of goods and the provision of labor services.
Sucralose boom continues, optimistic about the improvement of the company's profitability
The company is a leading sweetener enterprise. At present, it has the capacity of 12000 tons / year of Acer and 8000 tons / year of sucralose. Benefiting from the tight supply and demand of the industry, the price of sucralose rose sharply in 2021. In 2022, although the price of sucralose fell, it remained at a relatively high level. According to Baichuan information, the average market price of Q1 sucralose reached 439600 yuan / ton in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of + 113.07% and a month on month increase of + 1.30%. With the rising temperature and the increasing demand of downstream customers such as beverages, the sweetener industry will usher in the traditional peak season; Meanwhile, the export demand also increased steadily. According to Baichuan information, in March 2022, the export volume of sucralose reached 143523 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 88.31% and a month on month increase of 14.35%. In the context of demand growth, we are optimistic that the high prosperity of sucralose will continue. At the same time, the company attaches great importance to industrial chain coordination and self-sufficiency of upstream raw materials. At present, the company has built 40000 t / a sulfoxide chloride. At the same time, the construction of phase II project of sulfoxide chloride (40000 t / a) has also been started, and the main project has been completed; The 30000 T / a DMF project upstream of sucralose was also approved by the end of 2021. With the implementation of relevant production capacity, the safety of raw materials of the company will be effectively guaranteed. At the same time, the advantages of integration and cost control of the company will also be improved, and the profitability will be continuously enhanced.
5000 t / a maltol trial production, and the essence business has entered a period of rapid development
Methyl ethyl maltol is widely used. In addition to food and beverage processing, methyl maltol can also be used to synthesize downstream pharmaceutical raw materials. Ethyl malt powder also has antibacterial and anti-corrosion properties. At present, the company has the production capacity of 1000 t / a methyl maltol and 4000 T / a ethyl maltol. At the same time, the newly-built 1000 t / a methyl maltol and 4000 T / a ethyl maltol have also entered the trial production state, and all indicators have basically met the expectations. With the new production capacity fully reaching the production standard, the scale advantage of the company in the field of Maltol will be further improved, which will also bring large performance increment to the company. In addition to maltol, the company also actively distributes other essence products. At present, the company has a production capacity of 4500 tons / year of Jiale musk and 100 tons / year of methyl cyclopentaenol ketone. With rich product lines and rapid production capacity growth, the essence business is expected to enter a period of rapid development.
According to the profit forecast and investment rating, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 is expected to be 1.645 billion yuan, 1.895 billion yuan and 2.079 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS is 2.93, 3.38 and 3.71 yuan / share, corresponding to 13, 11 and 10 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The implementation of risk warning policies, the construction progress of new production capacity is not up to expectations, the contribution performance of new production capacity is not up to expectations, the price of raw materials fluctuates, the change of environmental protection policies and the economy drops sharply.
