\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
Event:
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarter report of 2022, and achieved an operating revenue of 25.35 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 20.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.34%; Deduction of non net profit was 7.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.44%; EPS5. 01 yuan / share; It is proposed to pay 30.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 13.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.07%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 4.898 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 28.53%.
Key investment points:
The annual target was successfully achieved in 2021, the release of dream blue was accelerated, and the change of fair value affected the profit level. The company has successfully achieved the annual revenue growth target (the same as +10%). In 2021, the Baijiu business will achieve a revenue of 24.44 billion yuan (the same as +21.3%), and the company’s sales volume / ton price will increase by 18.1%/2.7% year-on-year according to the component price. It is expected that the dream blue series will contribute to the main increment, of which the dream 6+ slot is about 600 yuan for the high-end line and the secondary high-end, and the exchange volume in the province + highland markets outside the province has increased, which has opened the scale gap with the main competitive products, and the target is to achieve a volume of 10 billion yuan; The performance of crystal dream outside the province is better than that inside the province, and it is expected to achieve large single digit growth throughout the year; Haitian series has achieved restorative growth based on the base number, and is currently being upgraded in an orderly manner; Shuanggou has initially started nationalization and achieved high growth in the form of distribution; The optimization of product structure drives the company’s gross profit margin from + 3.1pct to 75.3%. In terms of sub regions, Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other markets performed well in 2021, and the revenue growth outside the province (the same as + 21.4%) was higher than that inside the province (the same as + 20.9%); Throughout the year, the company focused on the strategic leading products and made in-depth adjustments to the dealers based on the principle of “being close to, secure, supportive and rich”. During the year, the company increased / reduced the number of dealers by 1691 / 2600 respectively, and there were 8142 dealers at the end of the period, deepening the channel mode of “focusing on one business and matching multiple businesses”. The net profit attributable to the parent company increased slightly by 0.34% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non attributable to the parent company increased by 30.4% year-on-year. It is expected that it is mainly due to the impact of changes in fair value caused by holding Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) shares. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 3.408 billion yuan (the same as + 55.8%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 295 million yuan (the same as – 0.46%). In addition to the significant decline in net investment income, the company’s 2021q4 sales expense rate is the same as + 19.4%, which is expected to be affected by the unified accounting of year-end expenses.
In the first quarter, it made a good start in the peak season and steadily improved its profitability. In 2022q1, the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 23.8% and 29.1% respectively year-on-year, and successfully achieved a good start in the peak season. It is expected that the collection proportion in the peak season of the Spring Festival accounts for more than half of the whole year, the price of its core items is stable, and the inventory is benign after the Spring Festival. In the first quarter, the company was less affected by Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) non recurring profit and loss. Its gross profit margin / sales expense ratio / management expense ratio were + 1.14pct / + 0.29pct / – 0.62pct respectively year-on-year, and the comprehensive net profit margin was 38.3% (the same as + 1.56pct). In the first quarter, the company’s sales revenue was 8.006 billion yuan (the same as – 15.13%), and the advance collection was 10.45 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1 billion yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 7.4 billion yuan month on month. It is expected that the pace of payment collection will slow down at the end of March affected by the epidemic.
The company’s systematic adjustment has entered the dividend release period and is optimistic about the successful completion of the annual goal. We previously stressed that the reason why Yanghe fell into adjustment was, on the one hand, the industry reason, that is, the company’s medium-sized product revenue accounted for too much, which led to the failure to quickly release the performance elasticity in the process of upgrading the market to the secondary high end. On the other hand, it was the problem of its own management and organizational adjustment. After the new management is in place, the company has basically completed the sorting of organizational structure, incentive system, channel mode and brand sequence. At present, meng6 + continues to maintain high growth, leading the scale of the sub high-end price belt of 600 yuan high-speed line; The introduction of crystal dream market is smooth. The price of sky blue, sea blue and other products is stable, and will still benefit from the upward upgrading dividend of low-end products. The company is also steadily promoting the product upgrading of Haitian series. The two core problems perplexing the company have been basically solved. In the short term, while successfully completing the business task in the first quarter, the company officially launched the special marketing action of “70 days of hard work · summer storm” on April 21. At present, only some regions in southern Jiangsu Province are greatly affected by the epidemic. It is expected that the completion of the company’s payment collection task in the second quarter will be high, and the company will successfully achieve the goal of annual revenue growth of 15% year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in the long run, the company’s core competitiveness at the brand and channel side remains unchanged, and the high-quality base liquor production capacity and liquor storage capacity also lead the industry. In the past two years, the company’s systematic adjustment has entered the dividend release period, the incentive scheme has been successfully implemented, and the assessment objectives have been accelerated compared with the previous period, which is expected to fully release the company’s business vitality. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.20/7.48/9.14 yuan, corresponding to pe26 / 21 / 17 times, and the “buy” rating will be given for the first time.
Risk tips: 1) the epidemic situation repeatedly suppresses the demand of the industry; 2) Macroeconomic fluctuations hinder the process of consumption upgrading; 3) Intensified market competition in the province; 4) The increase of expense investment will affect the profitability; 5) The expansion outside the province was less than expected.
