\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 313 Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) )
Performance review
On April 29, the company released its annual report of 21 and the first quarterly report of 22 years. In the whole year of 21, the company's revenue increased by 24.6% year-on-year to 8.14 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent was - 280 million yuan (including impairment loss of 130 million yuan and 20-year net profit attributable to the parent was 380 million yuan). Among them, 4q's revenue increased by + 1.3% year-on-year to 2.03 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 100 million yuan (30 million yuan for 4q in 20 years). In addition, the company's 22-year 1q revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were + 13.5% / - 44.2% / + 48.1% year-on-year to RMB 2.14/0.3/0.3 billion respectively. After three consecutive quarters of losses, 1q turned loss into profit in 22 years, and the performance basically met expectations.
Business analysis
1q's domestic sales are under pressure due to the impact of the epidemic, and the North American market is ideal: in 2021, the company's endogenous revenue increased by + 19.8% year-on-year to 6.03 billion, of which the same ratio of 4q's endogenous revenue was about - 8%, and 4q's endogenous export / domestic sales revenue increased by - 16.2% / + 30.3% year-on-year to 1.04/350 billion yuan respectively. 4q's domestic sales continued to expand relying on channels, and the growth is still ideal. The endogenous revenue of 1q in 22 years was + 17.5% to 1.65 billion yuan year-on-year, of which the endogenous export / domestic sales were about + 19% / - 1.7% to 1.07/230 billion yuan year-on-year respectively. 1q epidemic affected the operation of stores in some cities in China, resulting in a large decline in 1q langlefu brand revenue, while Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) brand revenue as a whole still increased by more than 7%, including distribution channels + 18.4%. At the end of 22q1 Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) China's direct / distribution stores increased by 11 / 32 to 173 / 1133 respectively compared with the end of 21, with a target of 600 new stores this year. In terms of 1q export, excluding MOR, it is expected that the North American market will grow by more than 30%, the layout advantage of American factories will begin to reflect, and the European market will grow by 1.1%. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is expected that there will still be some pressure on European demand for 2q.
The gross profit margin has been steadily repaired, and the profit recovery is expected: the overall gross profit margin of 1q of the company in the whole year of 21 / 22 is - 5.5 / + 0.3pct to 28.5% / 29.2% respectively year-on-year. With the gradual decline of the price of polyether, a raw material in China, the implementation of the price increase of the company's products and the increase of the production capacity of overseas factories, the gross profit margin has increased month on month for three consecutive quarters, and the profit recovery trend has been basically established. In terms of cost rate, the overall cost rate of 1q in the whole year of 21 / 22 increased from + 3.5pct / - 1.4pct to 29.6% / 25.4% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the sales / management cost rate of 1q in the company in 22 years was -0.8pct / - 0.7pct year-on-year, and the effect of comprehensive budget management in the company in 22 years was gradually reflected. In addition, due to the short-term tight cash flow of the company and the increase of borrowings, the financial cost rate increased by + 0.5pct year-on-year.
Domestic sales began to make efforts, and the profit quality is expected to be gradually improved: with the Serbian factories turning losses into profits and the American East and American West factories gradually reducing losses, the most difficult time of the company is about to pass. In this case, the company continues to expand channels in China, and continues to improve in channel empowerment management and brand publicity. This year, large screen advertising will be carried out at 176 high-speed railway stations across the country (covering 101 cities), and the domestic sales team has been further optimized. The epidemic is only a short-term disturbance. On the basis of the excellent product power of the company, with the improvement of brand awareness and the refinement of channel operation, the smooth development of domestic sales is expected to significantly open up the growth space of the company. Previously, due to the large proportion of OEM business, the profitability of the company was vulnerable to multiple variables. With the development of domestic sales, the profitability and stability of the company are expected to gradually improve.
Investment advice
We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is expected that the company's EPS in 22-24 years will be 0.88/1.48/2.09 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 11, 7 and 5 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks outside China; Escalation of trade war; The price of raw materials has increased significantly; The debt ratio was further improved.
