\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Event:
1. Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 30.652 billion yuan (+ 101.79%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.209 billion yuan (+ 209.23%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 10.184 billion yuan (+ 206.48%).
2. Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) released the first quarterly report of 2022: in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 8.841 billion yuan (+ 125.16%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.923 billion yuan (+ 104.95%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.896 billion yuan (+ 101.15%).
Key investment points:
Seize the historic opportunity of covid-19 recombinant vaccine and HPV vaccine, and the revenue and profit have doubled. The covid-19 epidemic broke out in 2020. The company made a decisive decision and responded quickly. In March 2021, the company reorganized covid-19 vaccine zhikeweide was included in emergency use. It is expected that covid-19 vaccine will contribute more than 8 billion yuan of independent product revenue in 2021. In 2021, the number of nine valent HPV vaccines with higher unit price doubled to 10.21 million; The stock market on the consumer side is huge, and the imported high-quality HPV vaccine is still in short supply; Promote the growth of agency product revenue by nearly 50% in 2021. Covid-19 vaccine and nine valent HPV vaccine resonated. In 2021, the company’s revenue doubled and exceeded 30 billion yuan. In the first quarter of 2022, the supply of HPV continued to increase, with the issuance of 4.83 million nine price HPVs, an increase of nearly 280%, which strongly supported the continuous high-speed growth of the company’s revenue and profit.
The company’s R & D investment has increased significantly, and the progress of R & D has been reported frequently, which is expected to enter the harvest period of independent products. The company’s R & D expenses continued to increase in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, with 553 million yuan (+ 84.42%) in 2021 and 161 million yuan (+ 161.12%) in the first quarter of 2022. During the reporting period, the company’s recombinant covid-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use in many countries, Mycobacterium vaccae for injection was approved to increase the indications, the 23 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine was applied for listing, and the freeze-dried rabies vaccine for human use (Vero cells), the bivalent conjugate vaccine of flexsonnei dysentery and the acyw135 group meningococcal conjugate vaccine entered clinical phase III. At present, the company has 9 products in the late stage of development (clinical phase III and later), and is about to usher in the harvest period of independent products.
The agency product structure was optimized, and the company’s net profit margin remained stable. In 2021, the structure of the company’s agent products changed greatly. The nine price HPV vaccine with higher unit price and per capita cost became the absolute main product, driving the growth of income and leading to the decline of the gross profit margin of the agent products. The operating results in the first quarter of 2022 showed that the growth rate of revenue exceeded the growth rate of sales expenses and management expenses, resulting in a decrease in the rate of sales expenses and management expenses. After integration, the company’s net profit margin remained basically stable.
The profit forecast and investment rating predict that the revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 34.516 billion yuan / 43.35 billion yuan / 53.770 billion yuan, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.887 billion yuan / 8.968 billion yuan / 11.289 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 21.95/16.86/13.39. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
The risk indicates the risk of abnormal reaction events of vaccination, the risk that the vaccine management policy leads to the decline of product price and the change of vaccination mode exceeding the expectation, the risk that the product sales promotion is less than the expectation, the risk that the R & D progress is less than the expectation, and the risk that the change of vaccine agency cooperation relationship exceeds the expectation
