\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 739 Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) )
The company announced the financial statements of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022:
1) in 2021, the revenue reached 12.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 106 million yuan, with a loss of 6.669 billion yuan in the same period last year; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 127728 million yuan, with a loss of 6.853 billion yuan in the same period last year, which was reversed year-on-year;
2) in 2022q1, the revenue was 346 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 449887 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.42%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 200382 million, a year-on-year decrease of 96.13%.
The company's performance recovery is better than the industry average, and the market share of cinemas has increased steadily. According to the announcement, in 2021, the national total box office was 47.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.5% over the same period in 2019. The company's box office revenue was 6.22 billion yuan (excluding service fees), a decrease of 20.6% over the same period in 2019, and its recovery degree was better than the industry average. In 2022q1, affected by repeated epidemics across the country, the national total box office decreased by 22.79% year-on-year, and the company's box office revenue was 1.94 billion yuan (excluding service fees), a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%, which was lower than the national average. In terms of cinema market share, the company has ranked first in the industry for 13 consecutive years and increased steadily, with 15.3% in 2021 and 16% in 2022q1, reflecting the company's strong operation ability, cost control ability and steady expansion.
Overseas cinemas have gradually warmed up, and non ticket business has created new profit growth points. The loss range of the company's Australian cinemas narrowed. In 2021, films such as "dune", "007: no time to die" and "Spider Man 3: no return of heroes" were released one after another, achieving a box office of 740 million yuan, and a box office of 249 million yuan in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 54.7%, accelerating the recovery of business in overseas markets. At the same time, the company actively explores the non ticket business to deal with the uncertainty of the epidemic situation. In terms of sales business, the company integrates the online " Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) " app and offline marketing, expands multi category tracks, and realizes the sales revenue of 1.503 billion yuan in 2021. In terms of live entertainment, the company's Jurassic world film special exhibition has been widely welcomed in various cities. In addition, the company has made full use of the idle theater space to extend new business formats and new scenes, and has held crosstalk, talk show, parent-child stage play, script killing and other performances and activities in many cinemas.
In 2022, the content reserve is sufficient, but the repeated epidemic will affect the performance. According to the announcement, the "miracle: stupid child" invested by 2022q1 company has achieved a box office of 1.376 billion yuan. Many films such as "Hello, brother", "you are my spring", "Mozart in outer space", "want to see you", "peacekeeping and riot prevention team" and "astrology" will be released within the year. In terms of games, after the domestic game version number is restarted, the version number of the "virtual tree maze" product of the subsidiary's mutual love and interaction is approved, and many games such as future football, Qin Shiming moon and Tianyuan breakthrough are expected to be released online. However, affected by the epidemic in many places, you are my spring and Hello, brother, originally scheduled to be released in April 2022 have been postponed, and the release time of the film is uncertain, which will have a certain impact on the company's performance in 2022.
Investment suggestion: at present, the film industry is still greatly affected by the epidemic, and the company actively responds. On the one hand, it actively generates income with the help of multi-channel and multi business, on the other hand, it actively strives for policy support such as reduction and exemption of theater rent and tax during the epidemic, so as to reduce costs and increase efficiency. We expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2023 to be 530 / 1.16 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.24/0.52 yuan and PE of 48 / 22x. Considering the repeated impact of the epidemic in 2022, based on 2023, we give the company a valuation of 25X in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 13 yuan, and a rating of "overweight-a".
Risk tip: the epidemic has repeatedly affected the number of film viewers, the content supervision policy has become stricter, and the production progress and release progress of the project are less than expected.
