Core view
Industry: sales remain sluggish, and there is no significant recovery in land. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, from January to March 2022, the sales of commercial housing totaled 2965.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 22.7%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared with the previous value; The total sales area was 310.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 13.8%, down 4.2 percentage points from the previous value. From the monthly value, the sales volume of commercial housing in March 2022 was 1419.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 26.2%, a decrease of 6.9 percentage points compared with the previous value; The sales area was 153.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 17.7%, down 8.1 percentage points from the previous value.
The average sales price of real estate continued to decline. From January to March 2022, the average sales price of commercial housing was 9552 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of – 10.4%; In March 2022, the average selling price of commercial housing was 9252 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of – 10.3%. As the performance of the third and fourth tier sales market is not as good as that of the first and second tier, the decline in the average sales price is not caused by structural factors, but more reflects the price reduction sales behavior of real estate enterprises, and the market is still depressed. Although the scope of measures to promote the purchase of housing loans has been relatively relaxed since March 2014, the scope of policies to promote the purchase of housing loans has been relatively limited, but the current restrictions on housing loans have yet to be relaxed.
So far, 13 of the 22 cities have completed the first centralized land supply this year. On the whole, the land premium rate has increased compared with the third land auction last year, but it is still at a low level. The land premium rates of Hefei, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Chongqing and Nanjing are 11.2%, 6.8%, 6.4%, 5.9%, 5.4% and 5.0% respectively. In terms of transaction structure, land acquisition by state-owned enterprises is still the mainstream. The proportion of land acquisition by state-owned enterprises in Beijing, Chengdu, Nanjing, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Tianjin and Chongqing is 94%, 82%, 79%, 78%, 67%, 67% and 62% respectively; Local private enterprises such as Qingdao and Hefei were active, with the proportion of land taken by state-owned and central enterprises being 33% and 38% respectively. The popularity of land auction varies greatly among different cities. Compared with Hangzhou and Tianjin, which conducted land auction on the same day, 23 plots were sold at the top price in Hangzhou, with a top price transaction rate of 38%, 15 plots were withdrawn from Tianjin and 9 plots were withdrawn, with a withdrawal rate of 80%.
Sector: the overall valuation is still low and the relative ranking is high. Since the release of the last strategy report, the real estate sector has fallen 6.0%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 10th among 31 industries. According to the consensus expectation of wind, according to the latest closing date, the dynamic PE of the sector in 2022 is 5.6 times, 8.5% lower than the bottom valuation level (6.1 times dynamic PE) on January 3, 2019, which is still at the lowest level in history.
Investment suggestion: the land is not hot and the market is not cold. At present, the sales side is still relatively depressed, and the land market has seen significant improvement. We believe that before the land market completely warms up, the pace of policy relaxation will not stop, and there is still more room for policy side game. We firmly believe that the current is a good opportunity for the allocation of real estate stocks, and the excess return will continue to be deduced. From the perspective of game, the land is not hot and the market is not cold; From the perspective of value, the layout mode is improved, and the “rising tide and rising ship” brings the second round of rise. In May, the combination recommended China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Greentown China.
Risk tip: the downward trend of fundamentals exceeds market expectations, and the policy cannot be warmed up for a long time.
