Key investment points
Summary of the report: the top characteristics of 2021 appear, and the boom continues in the first quarter of 22 years. In 2021, the total revenue of 29 coal listed companies was 144.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 161.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73%; In the first quarter of 2022, the total revenue was 385.6 billion yuan, an increase of 30% year-on-year and a decrease of 8% month on month compared with the fourth quarter of 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 60.9 billion yuan, an increase of 87% year-on-year and 52% month on month.
Index ranking: the growth of production and sales volume is differentiated, and the profit margin is generally improved. In 2021, the average growth rate of production and sales of listed coal companies slowed down, and there was obvious differentiation among companies. The number of companies with increased output was more than that with decreased output. The listed production and sales of coal in some provinces with exhausted resources or complex geological conditions continued to grow negatively. The 11 listed companies with decreased production were distributed in Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Gansu, Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other provinces, while some companies with new production capacity or integrated production capacity in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi achieved output growth. Consistent with the trend of further concentration of industry origin to Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, the output differentiation of listed companies will continue in the future, and most listed companies in resource exhausted provinces lacking subsequent resource reserves will fade out of the scope of stock selection by investors. The fluctuation range of the average sales price of listed companies is 17% – 94%, showing the characteristics of general rise. In the 2021 annual report, only two listed companies reported losses, with upward cycle and generally improved industry profits.
Fund position: the fund generally increases its holdings in coal listed companies. In terms of the number of funds held, the four coal listed companies with the largest number of funds held in 2021 were China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yankuang energy and Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) . In 2021, except Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) and Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) which were reduced by funds, the number of funds held by other listed companies increased. Yankuang energy is the listed company with the largest number of increased holdings of funds, with 299 increased holdings of funds during the year. From the perspective of fund shareholding ratios, the listed companies with more than 7% of the fund’s share of funds holding more than 7% of the listed companies that have more than 7% of the fund’s share of fund holdings in 2021 year from the perspective of fund shareholding ratio. The listed companies that have more than 7% of the fund’s share of funds holding in the year of 2021 are Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) thefund shareholding ratio decreased, and the fund shareholding ratio of other listed companies increased Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) was the listed company with the largest increase in the proportion of fund holdings, an increase of 12.96 percentage points during the year.
Investment strategy: the high boom may continue, and the certainty is worthy of attention. At present, the industry is characterized by the top. In the first quarter of 2022, the price rose more than expected, and the boom continued. The factors that exceeded the expectation came from two aspects. On the one hand, the supply structure was tight. Except Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, the provinces and regions that contributed the main increment were Guizhou and Xinjiang, which were far away from the main consumption places along the southeast coast; Second, the Russian Ukrainian war led to the reshaping of the global coal trade pattern, the increase of overseas coal prices was higher than that of China, and the import was limited. The uncertain factors in the second half of the year mainly come from the demand side. The impact of the epidemic on the economy exceeds market expectations. The measures and effects of steady growth will affect the high boom period of the industry. Considering that the average price has increased since the beginning of the year compared with last year, combined with the current supply and import situation, it is expected that the industry profit in 2022 will be better than that in 2021, maintaining the rating of “synchronous market-a”. Under the assumption of top continuation, we are relatively optimistic about the subject matter with strong certainty. We suggest to pay attention to Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) .
Risk warning: strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Overseas coal prices fell sharply; Other disturbance factors.
