\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 116 Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) )
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 was 100 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 87.67% / + 8.46%, in line with market expectations. In 2022q1, the company’s revenue was 480 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 119.77% / + 17.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 100 million yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 87.67% / + 8.46%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 95 million, with a month on month ratio of + 111.67% / + 10.44%. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin in 2022q1 was 32.09%, with a month on month ratio of -5.67pct / -0.64pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 20.80%, with a month on month ratio of -3.56pct / -1.77pct; 2022q1 deducting 19.87% of non parent net interest rate, with a month on month ratio of -0.76pct / – 1.30pct.
We expect that the company will ship 1100012000 tons in 2022q1, more than doubling year-on-year growth, and maintain high growth expectations throughout the year. We expect the company to ship 1100012000 tons in 2022q1, doubling year-on-year and increasing by about 10% month on month. There is strong demand in the downstream. With the release of new production capacity, we expect that the annual shipment in 2022 is expected to reach 70000 tons, more than doubling year-on-year growth for two consecutive years. It is expected that the price of NMP will increase by 20.28 million tons in the future, and the price of non-environmental protection projects will be the same as that of NMP, and the net profit of our subsidiaries is expected to increase by 20.25 million tons in the future.
The company is the absolute leader of carbon nanotubes, with leading technological advantages and accelerated production capacity construction. In 2021, the sales volume of carbon nanotube slurry in China accounted for 43.4%, and the leading position of the company was stable. At present, the company can mass produce the first to third generation products. We expect that in 2021, the shipment of the first generation products will be about 35%, the second generation products will account for about 60%, and the third generation products will be close to 10%. With the high nickel volume, the share of the third generation products will increase rapidly. At present, the fourth generation products are in mass production, the fifth generation products are under development, and the product structure will be upgraded gradually. The company has expanded its production globally, and the main structure of Changzhou’s 50000 ton new production capacity has been capped. We expect to gradually release it in 2022. In the planning of the 8000 ton production capacity project in the United States, we expect the production capacity to exceed 120000 tons by the end of 2022. With the gradual release of the new production capacity, we expect the output to reach 70000 tons in 2022, more than doubling continuously.
The cost control is relatively good. During this period, the cost rate decreased year-on-year and increased slightly month on month. In 2022, Q1 company’s expenses during the period totaled RMB 40 million, with a month on month ratio of + 45.36% / + 49.35%, an expense rate of 8.31%, and a month on month ratio of -4.26pct / + 1.76pct; The increase in receivables financing led to a decline in operating net cash flow and a significant increase in capital expenditure year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 673 / 1086 / 1685 million from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 128% / 61% / 55%, corresponding to pe39x / 24x / 16x. Considering the accelerated penetration of carbon nanotubes and the rapid development of the industry, we give 60xpe in 2022, corresponding to the target price of RMB 174, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
