\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event: the company's revenue in 2021 was 66.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.51%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.15%; It is proposed to pay a cash dividend of 30.23 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. In 2022q1, the revenue was 27.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.08%.
Key investment points
In 2021, it will end in double digits, and the dynamic sales of puwu terminal will be excellent. In 2021, the revenue was + 15.51% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 17.15% year-on-year, which ended smoothly. By product, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) series had a revenue of 49.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5%, a year-on-year increase of + 3.8% in volume and a year-on-year increase of + 7.4% in price. The price of puwu achieved a steady increase in volume, and the terminal dynamic sales reached a new high in the whole year; The revenue of series liquor was 12.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 50.7%, a year-on-year increase of + 15.3% in volume and + 30.7% in price. In terms of subregions, the revenue of the East / West / middle of the core region was 18.78/16.98/11.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 32.4% / - 8.2% / + 31.9%. By the end of the 21st century, the company's contractual liabilities were 13.06 billion yuan, an increase of 4.44 billion yuan year-on-year; There are 2054 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dealers, and the sales volume of a single dealer is 23.91 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.44 million yuan; There are 602 series liquor dealers, and the sales volume of a single dealer is 20.96 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7 million yuan. The gross profit margin of Baijiu in the whole year was 80.3%, year-on-year +0.01pct, the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio was 9.8%/4.4%, year-on-year +0.1pct/-0.2pct, the net sales profit margin was 37.0%, year-on-year +0.5pct, and the profitability was stable.
2022q1's performance meets market expectations and its profitability is stable. The company's revenue was + 13.3% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 16.1% year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations. The negative operating net cash flow is mainly due to the comprehensive impact of the company's increasing bill payment and other measures to alleviate the financial pressure of dealers and the high amount of cash received at maturity of acceptance bills in the same period in 2021. In terms of profitability, the company's gross profit margin on sales was 78.4%, year-on-year + 2.0pct, the sales expense rate / management expense rate was + 0.3 / - 0.3pct, and the net profit margin on sales was 41.3%, year-on-year + 1.1pct.
Optimistic about the gradual upward trend in the off-season, the long-term brand and growth still have both. With the company's strong control over the market from March to April, price regulation and severe punishment measures, the current Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rated price is stable at about 980 yuan, with a slight increase from last month, which fully demonstrates the management's determination to raise the price. We are optimistic that the rated price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the off-season will increase to the price of 1000 yuan, and the channel interest chain will return to a positive cycle. The impact of epidemic closure on high-end Baijiu is relatively small. In the long run, the scarcity and growth of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) .
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's business target in 2022 will continue to maintain double-digit steady growth. As the impact of external environmental situation and epidemic control is still uncertain, we adjusted the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 27.21/31.79 billion yuan (the original value was 27.3/32.21 billion yuan), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 was 36.36 billion yuan. The current market value corresponds to dynamic PE of 24x / 20x / 18x, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) brand potential is still strong, the valuation has cost performance and maintains the buy rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control exceeded expectations, and the sales of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) product series were less than expected
