\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 614 Xiamen Comfort Science & Technology Group Co.Ltd(002614) )
The company disclosed the results of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022:
In the whole year, the income is 7.9 billion yuan (YoY + 12%), 460 million yuan (YoY + 4%), 140 million yuan (yoy-66%) deducted 21q4: the income is 2.1 billion yuan (yoy-8%), 140 million yuan (YoY + 26%), 76 million yuan (yoy-172%) deducted 22q1: the income is 1.6 billion yuan (yoy-24%), 27 million yuan (yoy-73%), 19 million yuan (yoy-121%)
Income: independent contribution growth
2021:
1. Revenue by category: massage chair 3.1 billion (+ 29%), massage small appliances 2.4 billion (+ 18%), healthy environment 1 billion (- 6%) and other revenue 1.2 billion (- 15%);
2. The main massage industry maintained a good growth of + 24%, including independent brands + 33%. The decline of health environment (mainly empty and clean) and other businesses (mainly epidemic prevention materials) is mainly due to the decline of relevant demand after the epidemic.
Q1 2022:
The decline in revenue is expected to be mainly due to ① the dividend subsided under the high base of OEM exports such as massage chairs, and the export volume of 22q1 was + 4% year-on-year; ② The income related to the epidemic continued to decline.
Gross profit: cost pressure appears
2021:
1. The gross profit margin of the company is 30% (- 4.4pct) and Q4 is 31% (+ 1.3pct), including 41% (- 1.6pct) of massage chairs, 21% (- 3.9pct) of massage appliances, 17% (- 12.2pct) of healthy environment and 33% (- 6pct) of others;
2. The decline of gross profit margin is mainly due to cost pressure, exchange rate fluctuation and sea freight. Small household appliances with high ODM business are expected to be greatly affected;
Q1 2022:
Q1 gross profit margin was 29% (- 5.5pct), mainly due to the high fluctuation of raw material cost.
3. Profit: asset disposal + hedging income
2021:
1. The annual net interest rate is 5.8% (- 0.7pct), including the income from the disposal of non core assets of about 160 million and the income from hedging of about 150 million, which affects the net interest rate of about 3.5pct, and the income tax rate of 21 years also contributed to – 3.5pct year-on-year;
2. The net interest rate of Q4 was 6.6% (+ 0.9pct), which increased year-on-year, mainly due to the centralized recognition of 220 million investment income in Q4; During Q4, the expense rate was 31.2% (+ 6.6pct), mainly due to the year-on-year sales expense rate of + 8.6pct.
Q1 2022:
Q1 is 1.8% (- 3.4pct), and the expense rate during Q1 is 29.8% (+ 2.2pct). The decline of net interest rate is relatively narrow, which is expected to be mainly due to the income contribution such as exchange rate hedging.
4. Investment suggestions:
After the stock price correction, the risk will be fully released, and the subsequent exchange rate environment will improve or benefit the company’s export business. On the income side, considering the disturbance of China’s epidemic situation, overseas inflation expectation or reduced willingness to choose consumption, based on this, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 8.8 billion yuan, 9.6 billion yuan and 10.8 billion yuan (10 billion yuan and 11.2 billion yuan before 20222023); On the profit side, considering the company’s increasing the layout of the middle-end and sinking market, it is expected that the proportion of middle-end products with low gross profit margin will increase, and the upstream cost pressure is still on. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 500, 550 and 640 million (the value before 20222023 is RMB 750 and 890 million). At present, PE should respond to 10, 9 and 8 and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
Order risk, cost fluctuation, intensified industry competition, downstream demand fluctuation, rising sea freight and port congestion, resulting in the risk of delayed delivery of goods, intensified industry competition, the risk of third-party data distortion, and the risk that the public information used in the research report may lag behind or not be updated in time.
