\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 019 Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) )
Events
On April 28, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 906 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.30%.
Comments
The destocking cycle of calcium pantothenate is coming to an end, and Q2 performance is expected to show gradually. The company’s sales network of vitamin B5 and provitamin B5 products radiates Europe, the United States and other countries and regions, with a global market share of 40% – 45%, ranking the leading position in the industry. Since the third quarter of 2020, under the influence of covid-19 epidemic and African swine fever, the price of vitamin B5 series products has decreased significantly due to the increase of raw material prices and logistics costs. It has been running at a low price in 2021. Since the third quarter of 2021, the price of vitamin B5 has increased significantly. In the first quarter of 2022, it remained at the level of 350 yuan / kg, significantly higher than the low level of 70 yuan / kg in 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s sales collection of vitamin B5 products had a certain accounting period, and the recovery of API sector was delayed. When the inventory and collection situation improved, the recovery of the sector is expected to appear on the report end.
The global approval process of innovative drugs is expected to be further, waiting for a breakthrough. In 2021, the company’s innovative drugs made a number of progress in the world. The BLA applications of heavy hit variety f-627 were accepted by FDA and EMA in Europe, and entered the key stage of technical review respectively. The technical review of f-627 FDA in the United States was basically completed, and the on-site verification before approval was delayed due to the impact of the epidemic situation. It will continue to be promoted when the epidemic situation improves; In China, f-627 obtained the drug production license of Beijing preparation factory in 2021, and the application for listing in China was accepted in February 2022; F-627 has signed commercialization cooperation agreements in China and some parts of Europe, laying the foundation for listing promotion at home and abroad in the future. In addition, the application for f-652 to treat ACLF China ind was approved in 2021. As of April 21, 19 subjects have been enrolled. The IIb clinical trial for ah and GVHD indications to be carried out in the United States will be started after further communication and FDA approval.
Investment advice
The company’s innovative drugs have made remarkable progress in the world. When the epidemic situation improves, it will usher in the on-site verification before FDA’s approval of f-627; The improvement of vitamin B5 series inventory and payment collection is expected to drive the significant growth of the company’s performance. We maintain the profit forecast: the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 is RMB 5.854/66.49/7.768 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32.78% / 13.58% / 16.82%; The net profits attributable to the shareholders of the listed company were 890 / 1129 / 1466 million yuan and EPS were 0.72/0.92/1.19 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE from 2022 to 2024, which are 16.17/12.74/9.81 respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic risk, R & D less than expected risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, international operation risk, goodwill impairment risk, etc.
