\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021 and the first quarter report of 2022. 1) Annual report: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 66.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; Among them, Q4 revenue was 16.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 was 6.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, which was in line with the performance forecast data. 2) First quarter report: in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 27.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) liquor volume and price increased slightly, and the growth of series liquor accelerated. In terms of products, in 2021, the company's Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) liquor and series liquor achieved revenue of 49.11/12.62 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5/50.7% Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) liquor sold 29000 tons, a slight increase of 4% year-on-year; The revenue of the series of liquor increased rapidly, of which the sales volume increased by 15% year-on-year, and the ton price increased significantly, providing a new driving force for the company's revenue; According to the sales mode, the direct sales / distribution channels of the company achieved RMB 11.60 billion / 50.14 billion respectively in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 64.4% / 10.5%; By region, the revenue of East / South / West / North / central in 2021 was + 32.4% / + 32.1% / - 8.2% / + 30.2% / + 31.9% year-on-year.
The increase of ton price increased the gross profit margin, and the bill policy caused changes in cash flow. In terms of gross profit margin, the company's gross profit margin in 2021 / 2022q1 was 75.4 / 78.4% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.1 / + 2.0pcts. The increase in gross profit margin in 2021 was mainly due to the company's series of wine products with a year-on-year increase of + 4.0pcts. In terms of expense ratio, the company's 2021 / 2022q1 sales expense ratio was 9.8% / 7.4%, year-on-year - 1.4 / + 0.3pcts, and the management expense ratio was 4.4% / 3.6%, year-on-year-on-year -0.9 / - 0.3pcts. Due to the changes in the payment policy before and after the Spring Festival in recent three years, the bills and cash flow fluctuated. The epidemic situation before and after the Spring Festival in 2020 and 2022 was severe, and the consumption replenishment was obvious in 2021. The year-on-year fluctuation of cash flow in the first quarter was normal.
The line is stable and far-reaching, and the double-digit growth target is set for the whole year. Facing the uncertainty of economic situation and epidemic development, the company is down-to-earth, price first, sets double-digit growth targets throughout the year, and steadily promotes the pace of development. Product side: at the end of 2021, the company slightly adjusted the ex factory price of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and in the future, with the company's initiative to mix wine volume and price, it is expected that the general five batch price will rise steadily, and the layout of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the ultra-high-end price band will drive the continuous improvement of the brand. In addition, in terms of liquor series, the company continues to focus on building four national strategic brands to contribute new increments to the company's revenue. Channel side: optimize and improve the "1 + N + 2" channel mode, optimize the group purchase channel while optimizing the traditional channel, and further improve the profitability of the company while deeply cultivating the channel. Market side: stabilize the traditional advantageous market, focus on Highland market, key market and weak market, and continue to consolidate the national layout of the company.
Profit forecast: we maintain the previous profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 74.9/840/94.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13% / 12% / 13%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 26.6/300/34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14% / 13% / 13%. The current stock price corresponds to 24 / 22 / 19x PE from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the economy fluctuates greatly, the industry competition intensifies, and the epidemic affects the terminal dynamic sales.
