\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Event: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 110595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.15%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.705 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.98%; 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 25.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.70%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 761 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 27.82%. 22q1 achieved an operating revenue of 31.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.47%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.32%.
After 21 years, 22q1 has made a good start. In 2021, the company’s revenue reached the level of 100 billion yuan. By category, 1) liquid milk achieved an income of 84.911 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5%; Among them, sales volume / structure upgrading / unit price contribute 6.7 / 2.2 / 2.7 percentage points respectively. Among them, normal temperature liquid milk maintained a leading position, and the revenue of large single product Jindian exceeded 20 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.5%; The income of Shuhua milk increased by nearly 30% year-on-year; The income growth of low-temperature fresh milk exceeded 250%, and the market share increased by 5.4pct. 2) The revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 16.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.9%. Among them, the market share of infant powder increased by 1.4pct to the second in the industry, and the income of jinlingguan exceeded 10 billion yuan. The revenue growth of cheese business reached more than 150%, and the market share increased by 6.3pct. 3) The revenue of cold drink products was 7.161 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%. The company continues to maintain its leading position in China and further strengthens its market layout in Southeast Asia overseas. 22q1 liquid milk / milk powder and dairy products / cold drink products achieved revenue of 22.318/53.95/2.795 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 7.0% / 35.3% / 35.5%. All categories maintained good performance, among which the revenue of normal temperature white milk maintained double-digit growth; The new flavor of normal temperature yogurt amuxi has been launched for only 3 months, and the sales volume has exceeded 700 million yuan; The offline market share of infant powder (excluding Aoyou) increased by 2.4pct to 9.3%.
The upgrading of product structure improves the gross profit margin, improves the efficiency of fee investment and improves the profitability. 1) In 2021, the annual gross profit margin was 30.90%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.53pct under comparable standards, mainly due to the company’s active optimization of product structure and the reduction of buy give promotions. The annual sales expense ratio in 2021 was 17.46%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.04pct, mainly due to the company’s increase in Winter Olympic marketing expenses; The management expense ratio was 3.82%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.19pct. Overall, the annual net interest rate in 2021 was 7.87%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.57pct. 2) The gross profit margin of 2022q1 company was 34.72%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.12pct; The sales expense rate and management expense rate were 18.14% / 3.32% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.18 / – 0.22pct. The net interest rate of 2022q1 company was 11.33%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.99pct. Looking forward to the whole year, under the influence of the epidemic, the health awareness is enhanced to stimulate the demand for dairy products, the company actively optimizes the product structure, and the upward pressure on the cost side milk price is reduced; At the same time, under the trend of slowing competition pattern, the cost investment tends to be rational, and the profitability of the company is expected to be strengthened.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the leading position of the company is stable. Considering the Australian excellent consolidated statement in 22q2, the net profit forecast for 22 / 23 years is raised to 10.764/12.670 billion yuan (up 4.34% / 7.29%), and the net profit forecast for 24 years is 14.434 billion yuan, equivalent to 1.68/1.98/2.26 yuan of EPS in 20222024. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 23x / 19x / 17x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the cost of raw materials fluctuated, and the growth of core products did not meet expectations.
