\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
In 2021, the performance was brilliant, and the drunkard series increased high under the low base
The slowdown in performance growth in 2021q4 was mainly due to volume control and high growth of annual structure. The main reasons for the slowdown of 2021q4 company’s performance growth are as follows: 1) the company’s performance completion in the first three quarters of 2021 is good, and 2021q4 controls goods; 2) The cost rate increased slightly. Throughout the year, the revenue of neishen series / drunkard series / Xiangquan Series in 2021 was 1.034/19.15/176 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 80.71% / + 88.94% / + 11.71%. While the performance of neishen series was nearly doubled (volume / price increased by 76.6% and 2.3%), drunkard series (volume / price increased by 74.1% and 8.5%), high growth was achieved under the low base, and Xiangquan series achieved steady growth (volume / price increased by – 15.7% and 32.6%).
The proportion of e-commerce channels has increased, and the quality of distribution channels has been improved at the same time. In 2020, the company’s online channel sales reached 145 million yuan (+ 53%), accounting for 6.5% of its revenue; The number of dealers has increased from 493 to 1256 net over the past 20 years, and the average dealer scale has increased by 13.58% year-on-year, indicating that the distribution of alcoholic series has increased and the quality is stable and well oriented.
The profitability is improving and the performance of the expense side is stable. In 2021, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company changed by + 1.10 and – 0.75 percentage points to 79.77% and 26.17% respectively. During the period, the expense rate remained stable as a whole, and the sales expense rate and management expense rate changed by + 1.98 and – 2.94 percentage points to 25.18% and 5.64% respectively year-on-year; In terms of operating cash flow, the net operating cash flow of the company in 2021 was 15.64 (+ 64.68%); Benefiting from the company’s early spring festival payment collection, the contract liabilities increased by 662 million yuan to 1.382 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, reaching a record high.
Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) welcome the peak season with higher growth than expected, and the advance harvest is at an all-time high
Controlling goods and supporting prices, the company welcomes a good start – compared with previous years, the company has earlier account closing + slightly controlling goods + fast payment collection progress + rapid development outside the province + steady upgrading of structure, laying the foundation for Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) a better start than expected; In addition, the company focused on payment collection and inventory digestion in January and price channel maintenance from February to March. During the Spring Festival, the product price was stable and the inventory was healthy. We expect that 22q1 drunkard and internal reference series will achieve high double-digit growth.
Excellent performance on the profit side and stable expense ratio – the gross profit margin and net profit margin of 2022q1 company changed by + 0.4 and + 1.3 percentage points to 79.77% and 30.85% respectively compared with the same period last year, of which the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio decreased by 0.35 and 1.76 percentage points to 21.8% and 1.73% compared with the same period last year, which is stable; In addition, the contract liabilities of 2022q1 company increased by 94 million yuan to 675 million yuan compared with the same period, which was at a historical high in the same period.
Within 22 years, the number of participating drunkards is expected to continue to increase, and the quality and scale of channels are expected to double
Product aspect——
First, internal reference: after its new popularity in September 21, the pricing in the province is stable. Considering that the company’s overall direction for internal reference this year is still to strictly implement the quota system in the province to control the quantity and ensure the price, expand outside the province to increase the profit + will continue to increase the number of dealers and exclusive stores + the basic target of internal reference sales caliber this year is 2.445 billion. Internal reference is expected to continue its high growth trend in 2022, and the proportion of revenue is expected to reach 40%. It is expected that the company will launch new products in the first half of the year.
Second, drunkard series: as hongtan has gradually completed the replacement of new and old ones, the company will continue to focus on building hongtan (a separate team will be established later and special subsidies will be given). At present, the proportion has increased to nearly 30%, with the fastest growth rate; Transparent clothes and inheritance purple altar account for about 20% and 10% respectively. It is expected that under the strong waist strategy, the red altar will continue to increase.
Third, Xiangquan series + interior products: as an entry-level cultivation series of fragrance type, the company will continue to improve the quality of Xiangquan and gradually realize the increase of price under a stable volume. The income of Xiangquan + interior products accounted for about 15% in 21 years, among which the interior products focusing on wedding banquet scenes continue to grow at a high base.
Channel market——
In the next 22 years, we will focus on mobile marketing and consumer cultivation, continue to strengthen the base market, break through the highland market, deeply carry out national layout, strive to build a 1.5 billion level base market, build 1 billion yuan provincial market, and build three base markets of more than 500 million yuan; At present, the number of large businesses above 10 million accounts for about 10-12%. The company will continue to pursue scale growth while improving channel quality.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company’s revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 will be 42.8%, 28.0% and 24.1% respectively; The growth rate of net profit was 49.3%, 31.2% and 28.5% respectively; EPS is 4.1, 5.4 and 6.9 yuan / share; PE was 55, 42 and 32 times respectively. Considering the strong certainty of the company’s annual performance, the current valuation is cost-effective, and the buy rating is maintained.
Catalyst: the demand for Baijiu recovered more than expected; The internal driving pin keeps improving.
Risk tips: the impact of overseas epidemic has caused a second outbreak or upgraded prevention and control in China, affecting the recovery of the overall dynamic sales of Baijiu; The situation of Guoyuan movable pin was less than expected.
